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Evaluating marginal policy changes and the average effect of treatment for individuals at the margin

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Author Info
Pedro Carneiro () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London)
James Heckman (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Chicago)
Edward Vytlacil () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Columbia University)

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Abstract

This paper develops methods for evaluating marginal policy changes. We characterize how the effects of marginal policy changes depend on the direction of the policy change, and show that marginal policy effects are fundamentally easier to identify and to estimate than conventional treatment parameters. We develop the connection between marginal policy effects and the average effect of treatment for persons on the margin of indifference between participation in treatment and nonparticipation, and use this connection to analyze both parameters. We apply our analysis to estimate the effect of marginal changes in tuition on the return to going to college.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series CeMMAP working papers with number CWP21/09.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:21/09

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects and Econometric Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 11259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Angrist, Joshua D & Graddy, Kathryn & Imbens, Guido W, 2000. "The Interpretation of Instrumental Variables Estimators in Simultaneous Equations Models with an Application to the Demand for Fish," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(3), pages 499-527, July.
  3. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Newey, Whitney K & Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Efficiency of Weighted Average Derivative Estimators and Index Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1199-223, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-60, September.
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  6. Kling, Jeffrey R, 2001. "Interpreting Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Returns to Schooling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 358-64, July.
  7. Edward Vytlacil, 2002. "Independence, Monotonicity, and Latent Index Models: An Equivalence Result," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 331-341, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ai, Chunrong & Chen, Xiaohong, 2007. "Estimation of possibly misspecified semiparametric conditional moment restriction models with different conditioning variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 5-43, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Susanne Schennach & Halbert White & Karim Chalak, 2007. "Estimating average marginal effects in nonseparable structural systems," CeMMAP working papers CWP31/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Belzil, Christian & Hansen, Jörgen & Kristensen, Nicolai, 2008. "Estimating Complementarity between Education and Training," IZA Discussion Papers 3882, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Karim Chalak & Halbert White, 2007. "An Extended Class of Instrumental Variables for the Estimation of Causal Effects," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 692, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-10-31.

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