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The Cyclical Nature of North-South FDI Flows

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Author Info
Eduardo Levy Yeyati
Ugo Panizza
Ernesto H. Stein

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine how the business and interest rate cycles in developed countries affect FDI to developing countries. After aggregating flows into three big source areas (the U. S. , Europe and Japan), we find FDI flows to be countercyclical with respect to both output and interest rate cycles in the first two, whereas in Japan they display either no cyclical behavior or mild procyclical behavior. This finding is consistent with the fact that FDI outflows and local investment tend to move in opposite directions during the cycles in the U. S. and Europe, reflecting investors` arbitrage among different investment opportunities. In sum, and contrary to what is usually claimed, we conclude that recessions in industrial countries are likely to increase FDI flows, particularly to those countries with close ties with the U. S. and Europe.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4317.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4317

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton Jonathan & Tamura Akiko, 1994. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 478-510, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert E. Lipsey & Robert C. Feenstra & Carl H. Hahn & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1999. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 307-362 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Greene, William H, 1981. "On the Asymptotic Bias of the Ordinary Least Squares Estimator of the Tobit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 505-13, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 1995. "Trade blocs, currency blocs and the reorientation of world trade in the 1930s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 1-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Christian Daude & Ernesto Stein, 2003. "Regional Integration and the Location of FDI," Business School Working Papers doce, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. "Why is Corruption So Much More Taxing Than Tax? Arbitrariness Kills," NBER Working Papers 6255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 1999. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 7336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets," RES Working Papers 4279, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2001. "What Hurts Most? G-3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Tondl, Gabriele & Prüfer, Patricia, 2007. "Does it Make a Difference? Comparing Growth Effects of European and North American FDI in Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 26, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Buch, Claudia M. & Lipponer, Alexander, 2005. "Business cycles and FDI : evidence from German sectoral data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo DePace, 2008. "Do European capital flows comove?," Working Papers 2008-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo DePace & Johanna Francis, 2008. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Working Papers 2008-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Carlos Andrés Amaya G. & Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants Of Investment Flows Into Emerging Markets," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002334, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Yi-Hui Chiang & Yiming Li & Chih-Young Hung, 2007. "A Dynamic Growth Model for Flows of Foreign Direct Investment," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_047, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  7. Miguel Fuentes & Diego Saravia, 2006. "Sovereign Defaulters: Do International Capital Markets Punish Them?," Documentos de Trabajo 314, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Carlos Andrés Amaya & Peter Rowland, . "Determinants of Investment Flows into Emerging Markets," Borradores de Economia 313, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alexandre MINDA (LEREPS-GRES), 2008. "The strategies of multilatinas: from the quest for regional leadership to the myth of the global corporation \r\n," Cahiers du GRES 2008-08, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales. [Downloadable!]
  10. Selen Guerin & Stefano Manzocchi, 2009. "Political regime and FDI from advanced to emerging countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 75-91, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Waldkirch, Andreas, 2008. "The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico since NAFTA," MPRA Paper 7975, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America: The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2004. "Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Regime, and Macroeconomic Performance in Mexico," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
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