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The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets

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Author Info

  • Guillermo A. Calvo
  • Eduardo Fernández-Arias
  • Ernesto Talvi
  • Carmen M. Reinhart

Abstract

At the time of writing there were widespread concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. There is conclusive evidence that the pace of growth has slowed, which has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on two occasions (a total of 100 basis points thus far). As usual, when faced with this kind of turning point, analysts and policy makers alike wonder whether the United States will achieve a "soft landing" or whether the downturn is more serious and protracted in the worst scenario, the new weakness could signal the end of the new economy. Furthermore, recent inflation surprises have not been encouraging, as higher-than expected inflation numbers may curtail the Federal Reserve's desire and ability to act counter cyclically.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank in its series IDB Publications with number 6491.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:6491

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Keywords: Economics; WP-458;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen, 1994. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade," MPRA Paper 13708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 303-368.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Jongwoo Kim, 1998. "Was There Really an Earlier Period of International Financial Integration Comparable to Today?," NBER Working Papers 6738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 6979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-14, May.
  6. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
  7. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2001. "What hurts most?: G-3 exchange rate or interest rate volatility," MPRA Paper 14098, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "La naturaleza cíclica de los flujos norte-sur de inversión extranjera directa," Research Department Publications 4318, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Daniel Navia Simon, 2006. "Why Banks go to Emerging Countries and What is the Impact for the Home Economy? A Survey," Working Papers 0602, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "The Cyclical Nature of North-South FDI Flows," Research Department Publications 4317, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Nicolas Melissas, 2009. "On Bid Disclosure in OCS Wildcat Auctions," Working Papers 0905, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  5. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Daniel Navia Simon, 2004. "Determinants And Impact Of Financial Sector Fdi To Emerging," International Finance 0403001, EconWPA.
  6. Sebastian Sosa & Paul Cashin, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 09/159, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Christian Daude, 2008. "Public Investment in Developing Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?," Research Department Publications 4597, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  8. Sebastian Sosa, 2010. "The Influence of "Big Brothers:" How Important Are Regional Factors for Uruguay?," IMF Working Papers 10/60, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Steven Brakman & Gus Garita & Harry Garretsen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2008. "Unlocking the Value of Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 2294, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle," IMF Working Papers 13/183, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo A. Calvo & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Ernesto Talvi, 2001. "Crecimiento y financiamiento externo en América Latina," Research Department Publications 4278, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Fernandez Arias, Eduardo & Talvi, Ernesto, 2001. "Growth and External Financing in Latin America," MPRA Paper 9074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Sandra Lizarazo & Jose Maria Da-Rocha, 2009. "Money, Credit and Default," Working Papers 0908, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  14. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 08/100, International Monetary Fund.

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