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La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en el América Latina: El caso de Venezuela

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Author Info

  • Gustavo Garcia Osio
  • Rafael Rodriguez Balza
  • Luis Marcano
  • Ricardo Penfold
  • Gustavo Sanchez

Abstract

La economía venezolana se ha visto sometida desde mediados de la década de los setenta a un proceso de marcada inestabilidad y volatilidad, causado fundamentalmente por los shocks provenientes del mercado petrolero. La política fiscal ha jugado un rol determinante en la transmisión de esos shocks al resto de la economía. Por una parte, el gasto público ha mostrado un comportamiento procíclico en relación a los ingresos petroleros, transmitiendo la volatilidad de estos últimos a través de la demanda agregada interna y por tanto en las presiones inflacionarias y en el crecimiento económico. Por otra parte, el uso del tipo de cambio como mecanismo de corrección fiscal en algunas oportunidades y en otras como ancla nominal, conjuntamente con el comportamiento procíclico del gasto, han creado una situación prolongada de "stop and go" o de expansiones y ajustes recurrentes y transitorios con elevados costos de crecimiento, inflación y empobrecimiento de la población.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 3016.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:3016

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  1. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," IDB Publications 6797, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. Sheila Bassett & Claire Liuksila & Alejandro García, 1994. "Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 94/137, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Boskin, Michael J, et al, 1985. "New Estimates of the Value of Federal Mineral Rights and Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 923-36, December.
  5. repec:fth:inadeb:326 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  7. Manmohan S. Kumar & Pablo Emilio Guidotti, 1991. "Domestic Public Debt of Externally Indebted Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 80, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Marshall, Jorge & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1989. "Economic and policy determinants of public sector deficits," Policy Research Working Paper Series 321, The World Bank.
  9. Claessens, Stijn & Varangis, Panos & DEC, 1994. "Oil price instability, hedging, and an oil stabilization fund : the case of Venezuela," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1290, The World Bank.
  10. repec:fth:inadeb:324 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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