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Policy Options to Reduce Unemployment: TRYM Simulations

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Author Info
Lei Lei Song () (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)
John Freebairn () (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne)
Don Harding () (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

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Abstract

This paper evaluates different policy options to reduce unemployment by using a version of the TRYM model. For the purpose of this paper, the TRYM model has been modified in several respects, particularly by combining the private business and government trading enterprise sectors. For the long run, the neoclassical model closure means that the unemployment rate converges to an exogenously set NAIRU rate. For the short and medium run, periods well in excess of ten years, policy simulations show that macroeconomic policy changes, wage changes, labour productivity changes, and NAIRU changes affect employment and unemployment. Further, these policy effects are produced whether the model begins in a disequilibrium situation of unemployment above the NAIRU or at the long run equilibrium growth path with unemployment equal to the NAIRU.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne in its series Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series with number wp2001n19.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2001n19

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  2. Elizabeth Webster & Lei Lei Song, 2001. "How Segmented Are Skilled and Unskilled Labour Markets: The Case of Beveridge Curves," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-85, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Summers, Peter M., 2001. "Forecasting Australia's economic performance during the Asian crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 499-515. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Freebairn & Peter Dawkins, 2003. "Unemployment Policy: Lessons from Economic Analysis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
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