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Stabilizing The Australian Business Cycle: Good Luck Or Good Policy?

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  • Philip Liu

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Abstract

This paper examines the sources of Australia’s business cycle fluctuations focusing on the role of international shocks and short run stabilization policy. A VAR model identified using robust sign restrictions derived from an estimated structural model is used to aid the investigation. The results indicate that, in contrast to previous VAR studies, foreign factors contribute over half of domestic output forecast errors whereas innovation from output itself has little effect. Furthermore, monetary policy was largely successful in mitigating the business cycle fluctuations in a counter-cyclical fashion while the floating exchange rate also help offset foreign disturbances. For Australia’s stable economic success, good policy helped but so did good luck.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2007-24.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2007-24

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  1. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2009. "A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(1), pages 24-41, 03.
  2. James C. Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0013, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  3. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
  4. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2004. "Single Source of Error State Space Approach to the Beveridge Nelson Decomposition," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 242, Econometric Society.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  6. Mardi Dungey, 2001. "International Shocks and the Role of Domestic Policy in Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 443, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  7. G. Peersman, 2004. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/235, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  8. Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2004. "Technology shocks and robust sign restrictions in a euro area SVAR," Working Paper Series 0373, European Central Bank.
  9. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues In Adopting Dsge Models For Use In The Policy Process," CAMA Working Papers 2006-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  10. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  11. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns & Anthony Richards, 2005. "The Australian Business Cycle: A Coincident Indicator Approach," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  14. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  15. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
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