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Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Arbeitskräfteangebot sinkt auch bei hoher Zuwanderung

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Söhnlein, Doris

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Brigitte

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"The German potential labour force is expected to shrink strongly for demographic reasons. Even if we assume an annual net migration of 200,000 persons, which is approximately the average over a longer historical period, the potential labour force will drop from the current (2015) high level of 45.8m workers to 38.9m in 2060. The report also evaluates the effect of a higher migration inflow, a rise in the birth rates, the influence of increasing labour participation rates of women and older persons and a better integration of female migrants. Neither of these improvements could compensate for the demographic development nor can the sum." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte, 2017. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Arbeitskräfteangebot sinkt auch bei hoher Zuwanderung," IAB-Kurzbericht 201706, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201706
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Ein integriertes Modell zur Schätzung von Arbeitskräfteangebot und Bevölkerung," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201610, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

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