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Umfang und Struktur der westdeutschen Stillen Reserve : Aktualisierte Schätzungen (Extent and structure of the hidden labour force in Western German)


Author Info

  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weber, Brigitte

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

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    "The article analyses how the hidden labour force has developed in the recent past and what role the far-reaching modifications ensuing from the labour market reforms of 2005 (Hartz IV) have played. Estimations published by IAB in 2005 are used as a starting point. On the basis of these estimation equations, the hidden labour force was calculated up to 2007 using topical data. Against expectations, the present updated estimations show an increase in the hidden labour force in spite of the labour market reforms of 2005. The labour reserve increased strongly between 2004 and 2005 mainly among young people (under 25 years of age) and German women. In contrast, the number of elderly persons (over 50 years old) as well as the number of German men who were part of the hidden labour force dropped relatively sharply. This surprising growth in the hidden labour force may be caused by several effects: on the one hand the Hartz IV reforms enforced a principle of 'encouragement plus obligations' and were expected to result in a greater number of persons registering at the employment offices - persons, that is, who were capable of and available for work and had so far neither registered as unemployed nor were gainfully employed. On the other hand it is possible that the very negative information on Hartz IV spread in the media caused many people not to register. Moreover, as a significant part of the hidden labour force participates in employment and training schemes, such people are thus already registered and therefore not affected by Hartz IV. Altogether the updated estimations show that alongside official unemployment there is still a considerable hidden labour force of persons who are willing to work. Even after Hartz IV, the 'true' nature of underemployment is still considerably underrepresented by official data." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB-Forschungsbericht with number 201011.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: 22 Nov 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:iab:iabfob:201011

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    Keywords: stille Reserve; Schätzung; Altersstruktur; stille Reserve - Begriff; Nationalität; Beschäftigungsentwicklung; Arbeitsmarktentwicklung; Geschlechterverteilung; Hartz-Reform - Auswirkungen; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial; Unterbeschäftigung; Westdeutschland; Bundesrepublik Deutschland;

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    1. Christina Beatty & Stephen Fothergill, 1996. "Labour Market Adjustment in Areas of Chronic Industrial Decline: The Case of the UK Coalfields," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 627-640.
    2. Robert Kollmann, 1994. "Hidden unemployment: a search theoretic interpretation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7648, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Joachim Möller & Alisher Aldashev, 2006. "Interregional differences in labor market participation," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 25-50, March.
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    5. Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 1999. "The Measurement of Unemployment: An Empirical Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 147-162, January.
    6. Gong, Xiaodong, 2010. "The Added Worker Effect and the Discouraged Worker Effect for Married Women in Australia," IZA Discussion Papers 4816, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Liam Lenten, 2000. "The Profile of Labour Force Discouragement in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 4(1), pages 3-17, March.
    8. repec:nsr:niesrd:25 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Elke Holst & Jürgen Schupp, 2000. "Stille Reserve wichtig für die Arbeitsmarktflexibilität in Deutschland," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 67(29), pages 457-465.
    10. Miki Kohara, 2010. "The response of Japanese wives’ labor supply to husbands’ job loss," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1133-1149, September.
    11. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke & Mathieu Plane & Rainer Schmidt, 2001. "Labour Supply and Labour Force Participation in Europe � A Discussion of Some Recent Developments and Projections," Kiel Working Papers 1049, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    12. David Armstrong, 1999. "Hidden Male Unemployment in Northern Ireland," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 499-511.
    13. Jörg Döpke & Rainer Schmidt & Odile Chagny & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "Labour Supply and Labour Force Participation in Europe – A Discussion of Some Recent Developments and Projections," Sciences Po publications N° 1049, Sciences Po.
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    Cited by:
    1. Böhm, Kathrin, 2011. "Schätzung der Stillen Reserve mit dem Mikrozensuspanel 2001-2004 : eine Machbarkeitsstudie," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201102, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Michael Siegenthaler & Michael Graff & Massimo Mannino, 2013. "Die neue Schätzung des schweizerischen Erwerbspersonenpotenzials an der KOF," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(4), pages 45-56, December.


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