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Anchoring and Loss Aversion in the Housing Market: Implications on Price Dynamics

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  • Tin Cheuk Leung

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Kwok Ping Tsang

    (Virginia Tech and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Abstract

In this paper we develop a simple model with anchoring and loss aversion to explain house price dynamics. We have two testable implications: 1) when both cognitive biases are present, price dispersion and trade volume are pro-cyclical; 2) if anchoring decreases with time, then price dispersion and trade volume are higher for transactions whose previous purchase is more recent. Using a dataset that contains most real estate transactions in Hong Kong from 1992 to 2006, we find strong and significant anchoring and loss aversion which are robust to type of housing and sample period. The finding is consistent with the strong correlation between house price, price dispersion, and volume in the data. Moreover, anchoring decreases with time since previous transaction, and both price dispersion and volume show the same pattern. Our results suggest that anchoring and loss aversion can induce cyclicality in house prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 282011.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:282011

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Keywords: Price Dispersion; Anchoring; Loss Aversion; Housing Market;

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References

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  1. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Raymond Owens III, 2008. "Housing Externalities," NBER Working Papers 14369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 589-616, 04.
  3. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
  4. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Charles K. Y. Leung & Garion C. K. Lau & Youngman C. F. Leong, 2002. "Testing Alternative Theories of the Property Price-Trading Volume Correlation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(3), pages 253-264.
  6. Shapira, Zur & Venezia, Itzhak, 2001. "Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1573-1587, August.
  7. Stein, Jeremy C, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406, May.
  8. Charles Ka-Yui Leung & Youngman Chun Fai Leong & Siu Kei Wong, 2005. "Housing Price Dispersion: An Empirical Investigation," Departmental Working Papers _167, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  10. McAlvanah, Patrick & Moul, Charles C., 2013. "The house doesn’t always win: Evidence of anchoring among Australian bookies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 87-99.
  11. James A. Berkovec & John L. Goodman, 1996. "Turnover as a Measure of Demand for Existing Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 421-440.
  12. Alan Beggs & Kathryn Graddy, 2009. "Anchoring Effects: Evidence from Art Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1027-39, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Akkoyun, H. Cagri & Arslan, Yavuz & Kanik, Birol, 2013. "Housing prices and transaction volume," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 119-134.
  2. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 32776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Leung, Tommy Tin Cheuk & Tsang, Byron Kwok Ping, 2014. "Tax-driven Bunching of Housing Market Transactions: The case of Hong Kong," MPRA Paper 53729, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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