How Dependent is the Chinese Economy on Exports and in What Sense has its Growth been Export-led?
AbstractThis paper studies the interaction between foreign trade and domestic demand and supply in China¡¦s economic transformation. It compares China¡¦s export dependency with other economies using input-output analysis. The paper also conducts econometric analysis of provincial level data to examine causality between the growth of foreign trade and different components of domestic demand, and causality between the growth of foreign trade and total factor productivity. The main message is that China¡¦s export dependency is significantly lower than commonly thought. Moreover, the contribution of export to economic growth in China came mainly from its impact on total factor productivity growth from a supply perspective rather than its multiplier effect from a demand perspective. This relationship was found to be stronger in the more developed coastal areas than in the less developed inland areas.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority in its series Working Papers with number 0814.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 55th Floor, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central
Web page: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/
More information through EDIRC
Export-led growth; Export dependency; Input-output analysis; Malmquist index;
Other versions of this item:
- He, Dong & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-104, February.
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O43 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-11-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CNA-2008-11-11 (China)
- NEP-INT-2008-11-11 (International Trade)
- NEP-TRA-2008-11-11 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1990.
"Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alcala, Francisco & Ciccone, Antonio, 2001.
"Trade and Productivity,"
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
3095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francisco Alcalá & Antonio Ciccone, 2001. "Trade and productivity," Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 580, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2002.
- Francisco Alcalá & Antonio Ciccone, 2003. "Trade and Productivity," Working Papers, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics 12, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Jian Chang, 2007. "Sense and Nonsense on Asia's Export Dependency and The Decoupling Thesis," Working Papers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority 0703, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Venet, Baptiste & Hurlin, Christophe, 2001. "Granger Causality Tests in Panel Data Models with Fixed Coefficients," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University 123456789/6159, Paris Dauphine University.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2007.
"China's Exports and Employment,"
NBER Working Papers
13552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2010. "China's Exports and Employment," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 167-199 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Jimmy Shek, 2007.
"How Efficient Has Been China'S Investment? Empirical Evidence From National And Provincial Data,"
Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 597-617, December.
- Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Jimmy Shek, 2006. "How Efficient Has Been China's Investment? Empirical Evidence from National and Provincial Data," Working Papers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority 0619, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Kui-Wai Li, 2003. "China's Capital and Productivity Measurement Using Financial Resources," Working Papers, Economic Growth Center, Yale University 851, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
- Fare, Rolf & Shawna Grosskopf & Mary Norris & Zhongyang Zhang, 1994. "Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 66-83, March.
- Panagariya, Arvind, 1991. "Unraveling the mysteries of China's foreign trade regime : a view from Jiangsu Province," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 801, The World Bank.
- Xiaolan Fu, 2004. "Exports, Technical Progress and Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing Industries," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers, ESRC Centre for Business Research wp278, ESRC Centre for Business Research.
- Steven Barnett & Ray Brooks, 2006. "What's Driving Investment in China?," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 06/265, International Monetary Fund.
- Akkemik, K. Ali & Göksal, Koray, 2012. "Energy consumption-GDP nexus: Heterogeneous panel causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 865-873.
- Dong He & Wei Liao, 2012.
"Asian Business Cycle Synchronization,"
Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 106-135, 02.
- Dong He & Wei Liao, 2011. "Asian Business Cycle Synchronisation," Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research 062011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Yang, hongqiang & Ji, Chunyi & Nie, Ning & Hong, Yinxing, 2012. "China’s wood furniture manufacturing industry: industrial cluster and export competitiveness," MPRA Paper 44282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sun, Sizhong, 2012. "The role of FDI in domestic exporting: Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 434-441.
- Roberts, Ivan & Rush, Anthony, 2012. "Understanding China's demand for resource imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 566-579.
- Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2010. "Global Rebalancing and the Future of the Sino-US Codependency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 70-87.
- Bera, Soumitra Kumar, 2010. "Financial crisis: The incrediable hulk in Indian economic growth and external sector," MPRA Paper 27750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Frank Leung & Gaofeng Han & Kevin Chow, 2009. "Financial Services Sector as a Driver of Productivity Growth in Hong Kong," Working Papers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority 0914, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Yuqing Xing & Manisha Pradhananga, 2013. "How Important is Exports and FDI for China's Economic Growth?," GRIPS Discussion Papers, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies 13-04, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- Xing, Yuqing & Pradhananga, Manisha, 2013. "How Important are Exports and Foreign Direct Investment for Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China?," ADBI Working Papers, Asian Development Bank Institute 427, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Il Houng Lee & Murtaza H. Syed & Liu Xueyan, 2013. "Chinaâ€™s Path to Consumer-Based Growth," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 13/83, International Monetary Fund.
- Zhiwei Zhang, 2008. "Can Demand from China Shield East Asian Economies from Global Slowdown?," Working Papers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority 0819, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simon Chan).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.