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Is the Chinese Investment- and Export-Led Growth Model Sustainable? Some Rising Concerns

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  • Arslan Razmi

    () (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

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    Abstract

    China’s rapid growth and success in poverty reduction over the last three decades has inspired world-wide admiration. This paper uses a simple framework with a Kaleckian flavor to analyze structural developments in the Chinese economy, and to understand some of the distributional consequences. Some of the possible sources of these distributional developments are then further analyzed using a trade-theoretic approach. Other aspects of China’s investment- and export-led growth strategy are discussed along with the problems that the focused pursuit of such a strategy has raised. We conclude that China’s growth model may now have outlived its utility, both on economic and socio-political grounds. JEL Categories:

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    Paper provided by University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics in its series UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers with number 2008-09.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2008-09

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    1. Dennis Tao Yang, 1999. "Urban-Biased Policies and Rising Income Inequality in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 306-310, May.
    2. Rodrik, Dani, 2006. "The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 5483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Jahangir Aziz & Li Cui, 2007. "Explaining China's Low Consumption: The Neglected Role of Household Income," IMF Working Papers 07/181, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Chaudhuri, Shubham & Ravallion, Martin, 2006. "Partially awakened giants : uneven growth in China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4069, The World Bank.
    6. Ravallion, Martin & Shaohua Chen, 2004. "China's (uneven) progress against poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3408, The World Bank.
    7. Steven Barnett & Ray Brooks, 2006. "What's Driving Investment in China?," IMF Working Papers 06/265, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 12885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert Feenstra & Gordon Hanson, 2001. "Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey of Trade and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kanbur, Ravi & Zhang, Xiaobo, 1999. "Which Regional Inequality? The Evolution of Rural-Urban and Inland-Coastal Inequality in China from 1983 to 1995," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 686-701, December.
    11. Nouriel Roubini, 2007. "Why China Should Abandon Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, 03.
    12. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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