IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ums/papers/2008-09.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the Chinese Investment- and Export-Led Growth Model Sustainable? Some Rising Concerns

Author

Listed:
  • Arslan Razmi

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

Abstract

China’s rapid growth and success in poverty reduction over the last three decades has inspired world-wide admiration. This paper uses a simple framework with a Kaleckian flavor to analyze structural developments in the Chinese economy, and to understand some of the distributional consequences. Some of the possible sources of these distributional developments are then further analyzed using a trade-theoretic approach. Other aspects of China’s investment- and export-led growth strategy are discussed along with the problems that the focused pursuit of such a strategy has raised. We conclude that China’s growth model may now have outlived its utility, both on economic and socio-political grounds. JEL Categories:

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan Razmi, 2008. "Is the Chinese Investment- and Export-Led Growth Model Sustainable? Some Rising Concerns," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2008-09, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2008-09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.umass.edu/economics/publications/2008-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dennis Tao Yang, 1999. "Urban-Biased Policies and Rising Income Inequality in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 306-310, May.
    2. Mr. Steven A Barnett & Mr. R. Brooks, 2006. "What’s Driving Investment in China?," IMF Working Papers 2006/265, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
    4. Mr. Jahangir Aziz & Li Cui, 2007. "Explaining China’s Low Consumption: The Neglected Role of Household Income," IMF Working Papers 2007/181, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Chaudhuri, Shubham & Ravallion, Martin, 2006. "Partially awakened giants : uneven growth in China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4069, The World Bank.
    6. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-82, March.
    7. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    8. Ximing Wu & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 2005. "China's Income Distribution, 1985-2001," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 763-775, November.
    9. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Arslan Razmi, 2009. "Can the HOSS framework help shed light on the simultaneous growth of inequality and informalization in developing countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(2), pages 361-372, July.
    11. Kuijs, Louis, 2006. "How will China's saving-investment balance evolve ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3958, The World Bank.
    12. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2007. "China's (uneven) progress against poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-42, January.
    13. Robert Feenstra & Gordon Hanson, 2001. "Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey of Trade and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kanbur, Ravi & Zhang, Xiaobo, 1999. "Which Regional Inequality? The Evolution of Rural-Urban and Inland-Coastal Inequality in China from 1983 to 1995," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 686-701, December.
    15. Nouriel Roubini, 2007. "Why China Should Abandon Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cristian Dragos Turcan & Viorel - Costin Banta & Sabin – Alexandru Babeanu, 2021. "Initiation And Planning Of An Information System. A Case Study," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(49), pages 43-48, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gordon Anderson & Tongtong Hao & Maria Grazia Pittau, 2016. "Income Inequality, Family Formation and Generational Mobility in Urban China," Working Papers tecipa-563, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    2. Qu, Zhaopeng (Frank) & Zhao, Zhong, 2008. "Urban-Rural Consumption Inequality in China from 1988 to 2002: Evidence from Quantile Regression Decomposition," IZA Discussion Papers 3659, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun, 2013. "The saving–growth–inequality triangle in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 850-857.
    4. GOH, Chor-ching & LUO, Xubei & ZHU, Nong, 2009. "Income growth, inequality and poverty reduction: A case study of eight provinces in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 485-496, September.
    5. Luo, Xubei & Zhu, Nong, 2008. "Rising income inequality in China : a race to the top," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4700, The World Bank.
    6. Jin, Hailong & Qian, Hang & Wang, Tong & Choi, E. Kwan, 2014. "Income distribution in urban China: An overlooked data inconsistency issue," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 383-396.
    7. Gordon Anderson & Tongtong Hao & Maria Grazia Pittau, 2019. "More unequal yet more alike, the changing patterns of family formation, generational mobility and household income inequality in China: a counter-factual analysis," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(3), pages 359-378, September.
    8. Li, Muqun & Coxhead, Ian A., 2009. "Trade, Technology and Inequality in a Developing Country: Theory and Evidence from China," Staff Papers 92236, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    9. Anderson, Gordon & Farcomeni, Alessio & Pittau, Maria Grazia & Zelli, Roberto, 2016. "A new approach to measuring and studying the characteristics of class membership: Examining poverty, inequality and polarization in urban China," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 348-359.
    10. Guo Chen & Amy K Glasmeier & Min Zhang & Yang Shao, 2016. "Urbanization and Income Inequality in Post-Reform China: A Causal Analysis Based on Time Series Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, July.
    11. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability," IEER Working Papers 84, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    12. Nathalie Chusseau & Joël Hellier, 2012. "Globalisation and Inequality: Where do we stand?," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 21(3-4), pages 7-34, November.
    13. Jing Li & Tsun Se Cheong & Jianfa Shen & Dahai Fu, 2019. "Urbanization And Rural–Urban Consumption Disparity: Evidence From China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(04), pages 983-996, September.
    14. John Knight & Wei Wang, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1476-1506, September.
    15. Olarreaga, Marcelo & Cruz, Marcio & Milet, Emmanuel, 2017. "Online Exports and the Wage Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 12092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Lipschitz, Leslie & Rochon, Céline & Verdier, Geneviève, 2011. "A real model of transitional growth and competitiveness in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 267-283, August.
    17. Pierre Bachas & Matthew Fisher-Post & Anders Jensen & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "Globalization and Factor Income Taxation," Working Papers halshs-03693211, HAL.
    18. Celine Bonnefond, 2014. "Growth Dynamics And Conditional Convergence Among Chinese Provinces: A Panel Data Investigation Using System Gmm Estimator," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1-25, December.
    19. He, Dong & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-104, February.
    20. Mr. Leslie Lipschitz & Ms. Genevieve Verdier & Ms. Celine Rochon, 2008. "A Real Model of Transitional Growth and Competitiveness in China," IMF Working Papers 2008/099, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2008-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniele Girardi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deumaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.