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Is the Chinese Investment- and Export-Led Growth Model Sustainable? Some Rising Concerns

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  • Arslan Razmi

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    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

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    Abstract

    China’s rapid growth and success in poverty reduction over the last three decades has inspired world-wide admiration. This paper uses a simple framework with a Kaleckian flavor to analyze structural developments in the Chinese economy, and to understand some of the distributional consequences. Some of the possible sources of these distributional developments are then further analyzed using a trade-theoretic approach. Other aspects of China’s investment- and export-led growth strategy are discussed along with the problems that the focused pursuit of such a strategy has raised. We conclude that China’s growth model may now have outlived its utility, both on economic and socio-political grounds. JEL Categories:

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    Paper provided by University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics in its series UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers with number 2008-09.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2008-09

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    1. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
    2. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 12885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
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    6. Chaudhuri, Shubham & Ravallion, Martin, 2006. "Partially awakened giants : uneven growth in China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4069, The World Bank.
    7. Kanbur, Ravi & Zhang, Xiaobo, 1999. "Which Regional Inequality? The Evolution of Rural-Urban and Inland-Coastal Inequality in China from 1983 to 1995," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 686-701, December.
    8. Ximing Wu & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 2005. "China's Income Distribution, 1985-2001," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 763-775, November.
    9. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2007. "China's (uneven) progress against poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-42, January.
    10. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Nouriel Roubini, 2007. "Why China Should Abandon Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, 03.
    12. Steven Barnett & Ray Brooks, 2006. "What's Driving Investment in China?," IMF Working Papers 06/265, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Robert Feenstra & Gordon Hanson, 2001. "Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey of Trade and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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