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Can Demand from China Shield East Asian Economies from Global Slowdown?

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  • Zhiwei Zhang

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

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    Abstract

    This paper quantifies how much of exports from eight East Asian economies were consumed by consumers in China, US, Japan, other developed economies, and the rest of the world. We control for the indirect exports through China, i.e., the parts and components that East Asian economies exported to China and subsequently re-exported to other countries. A unique firm-level database is utilised to get an accurate measure for such indirect exports. The main findings are: (i) US consumers still account for more exports from East Asian economies than Chinese consumers do, and the total gross exports from East Asian economies to China overstate the importance of final demand from China; and (ii) the share of exports from East Asia that were consumed by the US, Japan, other OECD countries, and China did not change drastically from 2000 to 2006. Chinese consumers did become more important, noticeably for Japan and Korea, but even in these two countries, the magnitude of change is only about 5-6 percentage of their total exports. These findings indicate that the final demand side of trade in East Asia has changed only moderately since 2002.

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    File URL: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/research/working/pdf/HKMAWP08_19_full.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority in its series Working Papers with number 0819.

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    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0819

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    Keywords: vertical integration; intra-Asia trade;

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    References

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    1. Jane T. Haltmaier & Shaghil Ahmed & Brahima Coulibaly & Ross Knippenberg & Sylvain Leduc & Mario Marazzi & Beth Anne Wilson, 2007. "The role of China in Asia: engine, conduit, or steamroller?," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 904, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang, 2008. "How Dependent is the Chinese Economy on Exports and in What Sense has its Growth been Export-led?," Working Papers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority 0814, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    3. Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Jian Chang, 2007. "Sense and Nonsense on Asia's Export Dependency and The Decoupling Thesis," Working Papers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority 0703, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    4. David Hummels & Jun Ishii & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 72, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Can vertical specialization explain the growth of world trade?," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 96, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Cited by:
    1. Roberts, Ivan & Rush, Anthony, 2012. "Understanding China's demand for resource imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 566-579.

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