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Structural Reform, Intra-Regional Trade, and Medium-Term Growth Prospects of East Asia and the Pacific --- Perspectives from a new multi-region model

Author

Listed:
  • Papa N'Diaye

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Ping Zhang

    (External Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Wenlang Zhang

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the United States and the G3 on EMEAP economies.The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model. The GIMF model is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, because it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand that allow the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also illustrate structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in the major advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Papa N'Diaye & Ping Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2008. "Structural Reform, Intra-Regional Trade, and Medium-Term Growth Prospects of East Asia and the Pacific --- Perspectives from a new multi-region model," Working Papers 0817, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0817
    as

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    File URL: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/research/working/pdf/HKMAWP08_17_full.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Jimmy Shek, 2007. "How Efficient Has Been China'S Investment? Empirical Evidence From National And Provincial Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 597-617, December.
    2. Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Jian Chang, 2007. "Sense and Nonsense on Asia's Export Dependency and The Decoupling Thesis," Working Papers 0703, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    3. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradable Goods in Economies Prone to Sudden Stops," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2005), pages 103-148, August.
    4. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," NBER Working Papers 11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Leif Lybecker Eskesen, 2009. "Countering the Cycle—The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Korea," IMF Working Papers 2009/249, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Zhiwei Zhang, 2008. "Can Demand from China Shield East Asian Economies from Global Slowdown?," Working Papers 0819, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GIMF model; Slowdown; Demand rebalancing; Confidence effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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