Structural Reform, Intra-Regional Trade, and Medium-Term Growth Prospects of East Asia and the Pacific --- Perspectives from a new multi-region model
AbstractThis paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the United States and the G3 on EMEAP economies.The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model. The GIMF model is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, because it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand that allow the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also illustrate structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in the major advanced economies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority in its series Working Papers with number 0817.
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
GIMF model; Slowdown; Demand rebalancing; Confidence effects;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-01-03 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2009-01-03 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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"Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
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- Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Jimmy Shek, 2006.
"How Efficient Has Been China's Investment? Empirical Evidence from National and Provincial Data,"
Working Papers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority
0619, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
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- Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Jian Chang, 2007. "Sense and Nonsense on Asia's Export Dependency and The Decoupling Thesis," Working Papers, Hong Kong Monetary Authority 0703, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
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