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Structural Reform, Intra-Regional Trade, and Medium-Term Growth Prospects of East Asia and the Pacific --- Perspectives from a new multi-region model

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Author Info

  • Papa N'Diaye

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Ping Zhang

    (External Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Wenlang Zhang

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the United States and the G3 on EMEAP economies.The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model. The GIMF model is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, because it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand that allow the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also illustrate structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in the major advanced economies.

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    File URL: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/research/working/pdf/HKMAWP08_17_full.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority in its series Working Papers with number 0817.

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    Length: 51 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0817

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    Related research

    Keywords: GIMF model; Slowdown; Demand rebalancing; Confidence effects;

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    References

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    1. Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Jian Chang, 2007. "Sense and Nonsense on Asia's Export Dependency and The Decoupling Thesis," Working Papers 0703, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," NBER Working Papers 11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Jimmy Shek, 2007. "How Efficient Has Been China'S Investment? Empirical Evidence From National And Provincial Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 597-617, December.
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