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Does Restricting the Availability of Cigarettes Reduce Smoking?

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  • Nakamura, Ryota
  • Yao, Ying

Abstract

This paper estimates the causal effects of restricting cigarette availability on purchasing patterns. We design a research strategy that enables the estimation by leveraging the impact of an unforeseen discontinuation of products because of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. We analyze nationally representative home scanner data in Japan and find that making certain products unavailable leads smokers to switch to products with less tar and nicotine and purchase 32 percent fewer cigarettes per month. As a result, the total amount of tar and nicotine in purchased cigarettes has decreased by 43 and 30 percentage points, respectively. Such effects persist over the years.

Suggested Citation

  • Nakamura, Ryota & Yao, Ying, 2021. "Does Restricting the Availability of Cigarettes Reduce Smoking?," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-108, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-108
    Note: Draft Version: August 30, 2021
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    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/72444/070_hiasDP-E-108.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tobacco consumption; Supply restriction; Product availability; Natural experiment; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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