The Distributional Effects of Tobacco Control Policies On Adult Smoking Behavior

This paper uses quantile regression to estimate whether adult smokers' responses to tobacco control policies change across the distribution of smoking levels. I measure smoking behavior with the number of cigarettes smoked per day and also with serum cotinine levels, a continuous biomarker of nicotine exposure, using individual level repeated cross-section data from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Surveys. I find that higher cigarette excise taxes reduce smoking prevalence, and both higher cigarette prices and excise taxes reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day among smokers. Using quantile regression, I find that the reductions in cigarette smoking are concentrated among the heaviest smokers. However, using serum cotinine levels, I find little evidence that cigarette excise taxes or prices affect smokers intake of nicotine at any smoking level. I directly test whether the amount of nicotine smokers ingest from each cigarette is affected by tobacco control policies, and in fact I find evidence that the heaviest smokers consume more nicotine from each cigarette in response to higher cigarette prices. Additionally, I find evidence that smoke-free air laws in private workplaces and restaurants or bars are associated with reduced smoking prevalence, but not reductions in cigarette smoking or serum cotinine levels among smokers.