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Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods

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Author Info

  • Bjerksund, Petter

    ()
    (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Stensland, Gunnar

    ()
    (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Vagstad, Frank

    ()
    (Viz Risk Management)

Abstract

The existence of a financial gas market motivates the analysis of gas storage as a separate asset, using the market value context for utilization and valuation. In the recent literature, gas storage is typically analysed within a framework with a simple one-factor price dynamics that is solved to optimality. We follow a different approach, where the market is represented by a forward curve with daily granularity, the price uncertainty is represented by six factors, and where we impose a simple and intuitive storage strategy that follows from repeated maximization of the intrinsic value. Based on UK natural gas market price data, we obtain the gas storage value using our approach, and compare with results from one-factor models as well as with perfect foresight. We find that our approach captures much more of the true flexibility value than the one-factor models. Our results indicate that the appropriate framework for analyzing complex assets like gas storage is a rich representation of the price dynamics combined with a simple and intuitive decision rule.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2008/20.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 17 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2008_020

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Postal: NHH, Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Phone: +47 55 95 92 93
Fax: +47 55 95 96 50
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Web page: http://www.nhh.no/en/research-faculty/department-of-business-and-management-science.aspx
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Keywords: Energy; uncertainty; flexibility; exercise strategy;

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  1. Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
  2. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
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Cited by:
  1. Bjarne Steffen & Christoph Weber, 2011. "Efficient storage capacity in power systems with thermal and renewable generation," EWL Working Papers 1104, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Aug 2011.
  2. Felix, Bastian Joachim & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Gas storage valuation applying numerically constructed recombining trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 178-187.
  3. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Bråthen, Espen & Nissen-Meyer, Sigurd-Erik, 2010. "Evaluation of static hedging strategies for hydropower producers in the Nordic market," MPRA Paper 27133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Giulietti, Monica & Grossi, Luigi & Waterson, Michael, 2011. "A Rough Examination of the value of gas storage," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 967, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Arvesen, Øystein & Medbø, Vegard & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Tomasgard, Asgeir & Westgaard, Sjur, 2012. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," MPRA Paper 43270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Bastian Felix, 2012. "Gas Storage Valuation: A Comparative Simulation Study," EWL Working Papers 1201, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2014.
  7. Patrick Henaff & Ismail Laachir & Francesco Russo, 2013. "Gas storage valuation and hedging. A quantification of the model risk," Papers 1312.3789, arXiv.org.

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