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Contagion Dynamics in EMU Government Bond Spreads

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  • Christian Leschinski, Christian
  • Bertram, Philip
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    Abstract

    There is a growing consensus that part of the surge in government bond spreads during the EMU debt crisis can be explained by wake-up-call contagion. Evidence on pure contagion however is very mixed and there are no insights into the dynamics of these effects. As a contribution to fill this gap, we apply the canonical contagion framework of Pesaran and Pick [2007], similar to Metiu [2012], for daily data from January 2002 until May 2013. By adapting the contagion function used by Metiu [2012], we are able to identify the contagion effects originating from each of the crisis countries using a two-stage least squares estimator in a rolling window. This procedure allows us to analyze changes of the contagion coefficients over time. We find that pure contagion appears as early as February 2007 (coinciding with the very first manifestations of the subprime mortgage crisis) which is before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and thus much earlier than the Greek deficit revision. The effects have a stronger impact during the subprime crisis than during the EMU crisis and the main sources of pure contagion effects are Spain, Italy and Ireland whereas Greece plays only a minor role.

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    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-515.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät in its series Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) with number dp-515.

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    Length: 15 pages
    Date of creation: Aug 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-515

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    Keywords: contagion; sovereign risk; bond spreads;

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    References

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    1. Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2010. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Working Papers, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow 2010_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    3. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    4. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A., 2004. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0402, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Marco Pagano, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 531-554, Winter.
    7. Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2013. "Pure or Wake-up-Call Contagion? Another Look at the EMU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 131-160, 06.
    8. Favero, Carlo A., 2013. "Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 343-356.
    9. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
    10. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, 04.
    11. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ludwig, Alexander, 2013. "Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone: A time-varying coefficient approach," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 02/13, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.

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