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Die Prognose von Spielausgängen in der Fußball-Bundesliga

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  • Niermann, Stefan

Abstract

In this paper models for the prediction of matches in the German Soccer Bundesliga are estimated. In a frst step the expected difference of the number of goals is estimated on the basis of estimated abilities of the teams. Here, a focus lies on the necessity of robust parameter estimation. In a second step the probabilities for home team wins/losses and ties are estimated using a Bayesian updating procedure.

Suggested Citation

  • Niermann, Stefan, 2001. "Die Prognose von Spielausgängen in der Fußball-Bundesliga," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-247, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-247
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    File URL: http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-247.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pope, Peter F & Peel, David A, 1989. "Information, Prices and Efficiency in a Fixed-Odds Betting Market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 56(223), pages 323-341, August.
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