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Who will go down this year ? The Determinants of Promotion and Relegation in European Soccer Leagues

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  • Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt
  • Bastien Drut

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Contributing to the lively debate on closed leagues (North American model) versus open leagues (European model) in professional sport league, this paper aims at determining the drivers of promotion and relegation in the major European soccer leagues. Using a large and original dataset (for example: club's link with a billionaire, club listed in the stock market, etc.) and logistic regressions, our results show that institutional factors matter to settle in the elite. It also indicates that open leagues system in European soccer championships is de facto very similar to closed leagues system. Furthermore, our forecasting model can be of interest for soccer investors or bookmakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt & Bastien Drut, 2009. "Who will go down this year ? The Determinants of Promotion and Relegation in European Soccer Leagues," Working Papers hal-04140848, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04140848
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04140848
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roger G. Noll, 2002. "The Economics of Promotion and Relegation in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 169-203, May.
    2. Stefan Szymanski & Tommaso M. Valletti, 2010. "Promotion and Relegation in Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 6, pages 198-228, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Mr. Bennett W Sutton & Mr. Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 2002/149, International Monetary Fund.
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