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Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo : a model based on the Structural VAR approach
[TENDANCE DE L'INFLATION SOUS-JACENTE EN RDC : une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR Structurelle ]

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  • Pacifique K. Murhula

    (Université évangélique en Afrique)

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag schätzen wir ein strukturelles autoregressives Modell (SVAR), um den Trend der zugrunde liegenden Inflation in der Demokratischen Republik Kongo zu analysieren, und folgen dem Identifikationsansatz von Blanchard und Quah (1989), um langfristige Restriktionen auf der Grundlage der Wirtschaftstheorie aufzuerlegen. Tatsächlich wird die Inflation im Lichte der Lehren der Monetaristen als ein rein monetäres Phänomen wahrgenommen, und die Neuausrichtung der Geldpolitik auf das Ziel der Preisstabilität entspringt der fast einhelligen Ansicht von Ökonomen und Zentralbankern, dass die Geldpolitik die Aktivität langfristig nicht beeinflusst. Daher haben mehrere Zentralbanken Preisstabilität als oberstes Ziel ihrer Geldpolitik festgelegt. Diese wichtige Rolle können die Zentralbanken jedoch nicht in vollem Umfang wahrnehmen, ohne die Kerninflation zu kontrollieren, da nur diese auf monetäre Faktoren zurückzuführen ist. Zu diesem Zweck verwenden wir kongolesische Daten zur Wachstumsrate der Aktivität und der Inflationsrate von 2002Q1 bis 2019Q4. Unsere Ergebnisse bestätigen im Großen und Ganzen die in der Literatur gefundenen und zeigen, dass der monetäre Schock in Übereinstimmung mit der Identifikationsbeschränkung fast keine Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaftstätigkeit hat, was dazu tendiert, die Vertikalität der Phillips-Kurve zu bestätigen und die Persistenz des negativen realen Schocks erklärt die Volatilität der Inflation in der Demokratischen Republik Kongo (DRK) erheblich.

Suggested Citation

  • Pacifique K. Murhula, 2021. "Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo : a model based on the Structural VAR approach [TENDANCE DE L'INFLATION SOUS-JACENTE EN RDC : une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR Structurelle ]," Working Papers hal-03103775, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03103775
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03103775
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    References listed on IDEAS

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