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Sesgos en la medición de la inflación en contextos inflacionarios: El caso peruano

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Abstract

La posible sobrevaluación del Indice de Precios al Consumidor de Lima Metropolitana ha sido un problema que ha venido preocupando tanto a académicos como a tomadores de decisiones y a la opinión pública en general desde hace ya algún tiempo. Muchos desconocen que la sobreestimación del Producto Bruto Interno per cápita y del retraso cambiario, o la subestimación de la presión tributaria, tiene su origen en el mismo problema de medición del IPC. Sin embargo, la existencia de dichos sesgos es reconocida cada vez más como asuntos que necesitan ser urgentemente abordados y solucionados. Entender la naturaleza exacta de estos problemas es indispensable si se pretende corregirlos adecuadamente. Este documento parte de la teoría de los índices del costo de vida para determinar la manera más adecuada de agregar los precios para obtener un indicador de inflación. Dicha metodología es comparada con el IPC elaborado por el INEI. El documento muestra que el índice de precios del INEI sobrevalúa el costo de vida sistemáticamente en periodos de alta inflación. La corrección de este sesgo es crucial pues una rectificación del IPC permitiría reevaluar la evolución, en términos reales, de los principales agregados macroeconómicos.

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File URL: http://www.grade.org.pe/download/pubs/ddt/ddt21.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE) in its series Documentos de Investigación with number dt21.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gad:doctra:dt21

Note: Documento de Trabajo,21
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Related research

Keywords: Indices de precios; Inflacion; Price indexes; Inflation; Peru;

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References

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  1. Gordon, Robert J, 1992. "Measuring the Aggregate Price Level: Implications for Economic Performance and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 663, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The consumer price index as a measure of inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 15-24.
  3. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Menno Pradhan & David E. Sahn & Stephen D. Younger, 2001. "Decomposing World Health Inequality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-091/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Escobal, Javier & Saavedra, Jaime & Torero, Máximo, 1999. "Los activos de los pobres en el Perú," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(263), pages 619-659, Julio-sep.
  3. Gustavo Yamada, 2006. "Retornos a la educación superior en el mercado laboral: ¿Vale la pena el esfuerzo?," Working Papers 06-13, Departamento de Economía, Universidad del Pacífico, revised Dec 2006.
  4. Juan José Diaz, 2003. "Evolución de la estructura de ingresos relativos en Lima Metropolitana: un análisis de los factores de oferta y de demanda, 1986-1995," Investigaciones Breves (CIES-GRADE) ciesib11, Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE) & Consorcio de Investigación Económica y Social (CIES).

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