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Responses of African economies to the international economic shocks: an empirical study

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  • Giscard Assoumou Ella

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    (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - Université Sud Toulon Var)

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    Abstract

    The objective of this paper is first to verify the assumption of decoupling or no decoupling of African economic conjunctures and international economic shocks. Our study has tested this assumption in 15 African countries using a SVAR model for the period 1970-2007 and the results suggest that there is no decoupling. In fact 12 countries are exposed to OEDC GDP per capita shocks, six to Federal funds effective rate shocks and five to World price of oil shocks. Furthermore, we investigate the viability of an economic and monetary union creation for the African countries and a unified currency using the comparative of the reaction of any African economy to those international shocks. The impulse response functions of the African economies after an international income, monetary or price shocks tend to be in general more or less similar. According to this indicator, we are optimistic for the possibility and the viability of this project.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00721633.

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    Date of creation: 22 Jun 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00721633

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00721633
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    Related research

    Keywords: African economies; international economic shocks; SVAR model;

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    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 203, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Identifying Shocks in Regionally Integrated East Asian Economies with Structural VAR and Block Exogeneity," Working Papers in Economics 10/23, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et dans la zone euro : un modèle VAR structurel," CEPN Working Papers hal-00493384, HAL.
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    Cited by:
    1. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "The viability of an economic and monetary union in Africa with a unified currency: evidence from the African economies' reactions to the international income, price and monetary shocks," Working Papers hal-00851594, HAL.

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