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Le taux de change réel d’équilibre dans les pays en transition : le cas de la Hongrie

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  • Nathalie Avallone

    (TEAM - Théories et Applications en Microéconomie et Macroéconomie - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Amina Lahrèche-Révil

    (UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne, CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales, TEAM - Théories et Applications en Microéconomie et Macroéconomie - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We estimate two complementary models of real equilibrium exchange rate to assess the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the hungarian Forint. The first model uses the Balassa-Samuelson effect, where the behaviour of the real exchange rate depends on the relative productivities. This second one is a model of "behavioural" real equilibrium exchange rate, relying on the simultaneous attainment of internal and external equilibrium, and using a demand-oriented approach (Edwards [1994]). On the period of analysis (1985-1997), both estimates converge on the diagnosis that the exchange rate policy of Hungary focused on external competitiveness vis-à-vis the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathalie Avallone & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 1999. "Le taux de change réel d’équilibre dans les pays en transition : le cas de la Hongrie," Post-Print halshs-03598288, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03598288
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03598288
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    Cited by:

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    2. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    3. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.

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