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Do Long-Run Productivity Differentials Explain Long-Run Real Exchange Rates?

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick K. Asea
  • Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza

Abstract

We develop a two-country, balanced-growth intertemporal general equilibrium model to examine two predictions of the Balassa-Samuelson model, namely that (i) productivity differentials determine the domestic relative price of nontradables and (ii) deviations from purchasing power parity reflect differences in the relative price of nontradables. In our model, the equilibrium relative price of nontradables along the long-run balanced-growth path is determined by the ratio of the marginal products of labor in the tradable and nontradable sectors. The empirical relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson predictions is examined using the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract long-run components from a panel database for fourteen OECD countries. The evidence indicates that labor productivity differentials do explain long-run, cross-country differences in relative prices. The predicted relative prices, however, are of little help in explaining long-run deviations from purchasing power parity.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick K. Asea & Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1994. "Do Long-Run Productivity Differentials Explain Long-Run Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 1994/060, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1994/060
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nathalie Avallone & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 1999. "Le taux de change réel d’équilibre dans les pays en transition : le cas de la Hongrie," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03598288, HAL.
    2. R. Scott Hacker & Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & Kristofer Månsson, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Differentials: A Wavelet Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9), pages 1162-1185, September.
    3. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: Is it Fundamental?," CESifo Working Paper Series 798, CESifo.
    4. Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Whither the Yen? Implications of an intertemporal model of the Yen/Dollar rate," International Finance 9508001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Aug 1995.
    5. Velimir Šonje & Igeta Vrbanc, 2000. "Measuring the Similarities of Economic Developments in Central Europe: A Correlation between the Business Cycles of Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Croatia," Working Papers 3, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    6. Nathalie Avallone & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 1999. "Le taux de change réel d’équilibre dans les pays en transition : le cas de la Hongrie," Post-Print halshs-03598288, HAL.
    7. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-393, September.
    8. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
    9. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
    10. Nathalie Avallone & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 1999. "Le taux de change réel d'équilibre dans les pays en transition : le cas de la Hongrie," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla99091, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    11. Chinn, Menzie David, 1997. "Paper pushers or paper money? Empirical assessment of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-78, February.
    12. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "Oil prices and Spanish competitiveness: A cointegrated panel analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 591-605, October.

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