Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate
AbstractOn the basis of historical data aggregated over the period 1973 to 2000, we estimated four different equilibrium exchange rate models for the synthetic euro. Using the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the possibility to assess the uncertainty surrounding such equilibrium levels, both from a statistical and a theoretical perspective. We employed reduced form co-integration models, a structurla VAR, a Natrex model (estimated in structural form) and the ECB's small-sized euro area wide macro-economic model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of 'structure', in the sense of the constraints based on economic theory embedded in the econometric models that were estimated. The results confirm the high leikelihood for the euro ahving been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical and theoretical uncertainty with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate level. JEL Classification: F31, F32
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0160.
Date of creation: Jul 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2001.
"Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach,"
Working Paper Series
0085, European Central Bank.
- Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December.
- Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," International Finance 0111003, EconWPA.
- Rogers, John H., 1999.
"Monetary shocks and real exchange rates,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-288, December.
- Patrick K. Asea & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1994. "Do Long-Run Productivity Differentials Explain Long-Run Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 94/60, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
NBER Working Papers
2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
- Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Purchasing Power Disparities between the G3 Economies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 548-583, December.
- Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Purchasing Power Disparities Between the G3-Economies," Discussion Paper Serie B 419, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.