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Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition

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  • Halpern, László
  • Wyplosz, Charles

Abstract

This paper tests two central assumptions regarding transforming economies: that the initial exchange rates were strongly undervalued and that the subsequent evolution of the real exchange rate was both a response to the initial undervaluation and an equilibrium real appreciation. The econometric results support both assumptions. The degree of initial overvaluation varies from country to country, ranging from very little in the case of Hungary to more than 100% in most other countries. It is estimated using a sample of 49 high-and middle-income countries, with five observations per country (1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990). The subsequent process of equilibrium appreciation is estimated with pooled data for six countries (Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) covering the period after inflation stabilization.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1145.

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Date of creation: Apr 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1145

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Related research

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe; Exchange Rate; Overvaluation; Transition;

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Cited by:
  1. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Panagiotis Liargovas, 1999. "An Assessment of Real Exchange Rate Movements in the Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 299-318.
  3. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Meleck, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 739, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/56, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P. & Spinanger, Dean & Brücker, Herbert & Engerer, Hella & Lodahl, Maria & Schrettl, Wolfram & Schrooten, Mechthild & Gabrisch, Hubert & Linne, Thomas & Sigmund, Pe, 1997. "Die wirtschaftliche Lage Rußlands: Wirtschaftspolitik muß jetzt endlich Wachstumserfolge vorweisen. Elfter Bericht," Open Access publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 308, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts of Macroeconomic Policies on Output in the Czech Republic: An Application of Romer's IS-MP-IA Model," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2004(4), pages 339-345.
  7. Yuhsing, 2006. "Macroeconomic policies and output fluctuations in slovakia: Application of the taylor rule," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 249-259, June.
  8. Jacek Rostowski, 1999. "The Approach to EU and EMU Membership: the Implications for Macroeconomic Policy in Applicant Countries," CASE-CEU Working Papers 0026, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  9. French-German Economic Forum, 1999. "Reduction of Working Time," Working Papers 1999-13, CEPII research center.
  10. Nicolas Sobczak & Céline Prigent & Hervé Joly, 1996. "Le taux de change réel d'équilibre : une introduction," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 1-21.
  11. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank.
  12. Buch, Claudia M. & Heinrich, Ralph P., 1997. "Financing the transition: Risks and benefits of integrating into the international capital market," Kiel Working Papers 818, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  13. Lubos Komarek & Martin Melecky, 2005. "The Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," Working Papers 2005/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  14. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  15. Pelin Oge Guney & Erdinc Telatar & Mubariz Hasanov, 2012. "Time Series Behaviour of the Real Interest Rates in Transition Economies," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20125, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
  16. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Analysis of exchange rate fluctuations for Slovakia: application of an extended Mundell--Fleming model," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 289-292, September.

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