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Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition

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Author Info
Halpern, László
Wyplosz, Charles

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Abstract

This paper tests two central assumptions regarding transforming economies: that the initial exchange rates were strongly undervalued and that the subsequent evolution of the real exchange rate was both a response to the initial undervaluation and an equilibrium real appreciation. The econometric results support both assumptions. The degree of initial overvaluation varies from country to country, ranging from very little in the case of Hungary to more than 100% in most other countries. It is estimated using a sample of 49 high-and middle-income countries, with five observations per country (1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990). The subsequent process of equilibrium appreciation is estimated with pooled data for six countries (Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) covering the period after inflation stabilization.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1145.

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Date of creation: Apr 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1145

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Related research
Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe; Exchange Rate; Overvaluation; Transition;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
P41 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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  1. Mark de Broeck & Torsten Sløk, . "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/56, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Horvath, Roman & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in EU New Members: Applicable for Setting the ERM II Central Parity?," MPRA Paper 1180, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yu Hsing, 2004. "Impacts Of Macroeconomic Policies On Output In The Czech Republic: An Application Of Romer'S Is-Mp-Ia Model," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2004(4), pages 339-345. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Yuhsing, 2006. "Macroeconomic policies and output fluctuations in slovakia: Application of the taylor rule," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 249-259, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lubos Komarek & Martin Melecky, 2005. "The Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna," Working Papers 2005/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Analysis of exchange rate fluctuations for Slovakia: application of an extended Mundell--Fleming model," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 289-292, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Panagiotis Liargovas, 1999. "An Assessment of Real Exchange Rate Movements in the Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 299-318, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Meleck, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 739, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. French-German Economic Forum, 1999. "Reduction of working time - Eastward Enlargement of the European Union," Working Papers 1999-13, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  11. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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