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How to aggregate experts' discount rates: an equilibrium approach

Author

Listed:
  • Elyès Jouini

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Clotilde Napp

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We address the problem of a social planner who, as in Weitzman (2001), gathers data on experts' discount rates and wants to infer the socially efficient consumption discount rate. We propose an 'equilibrium approach' and we analyse the expression and the properties of the resulting 'equilibrium discount rate'. We compare our expression for the discount rate with the different expressions that have been previously proposed in the literature. We analyse the impact of shifts in the distributions of experts discount rates. Finally, we apply our approach to Weitzman (2001)'s data to propose discount rates for public sector Cost-Bene t Analysis, in particular for the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2014. "How to aggregate experts' discount rates: an equilibrium approach," Post-Print halshs-00927269, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00927269
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.052
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00927269
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego Nocetti & Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2008. "Properties of the Social Discount Rate in a Benthamite Framework with Heterogeneous Degrees of Impatience," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(10), pages 1822-1826, October.
    2. Gollier, Christian, 2004. "Maximizing the expected net future value as an alternative strategy to gamma discounting," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 85-89, June.
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    5. Landsberger, Michael & Meilijson, Isaac, 1990. "Demand for risky financial assets: A portfolio analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 204-213, February.
    6. Jaksa Cvitanic & Elyès Jouini & Semyon Malamud & Clotilde Napp, 2011. "Financial Markets Equilibrium with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 285-321.
    7. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 703-724, September.
    8. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801.
    9. Martin L. Weitzman, 2001. "Gamma Discounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 260-271, March.
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    11. Mark Rubinstein., 1975. "The Strong Case for the Generalized Logarithmic Utility Model as the Premier Model of Financial Markets," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 34, University of California at Berkeley.
    12. Yvan Lengwiler, 2005. "Heterogeneous Patience and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 890-896, June.
    13. Ben Groom & Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri & David Pearce, 2005. "Declining Discount Rates: The Long and the Short of it," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(4), pages 445-493, December.
    14. Robert M. Anderson & Roberto C. Raimondo, 2008. "Equilibrium in Continuous-Time Financial Markets: Endogenously Dynamically Complete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(4), pages 841-907, July.
    15. Weitzman, Martin L., 1998. "Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 201-208, November.
    16. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    17. Jouini, Elyès & Marin, Jean-Michel & Napp, Clotilde, 2010. "Discounting and divergence of opinion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 830-859, March.
    18. William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 686-702, September.
    19. Kenneth F. Reinschmidt, 2002. "Aggregate Social Discount Rate Derived from Individual Discount Rates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(2), pages 307-312, February.
    20. Christian Gollier & Richard Zeckhauser, 2005. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Time Preferences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 878-896, August.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben, 2016. "How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 152-168.
    3. Jurgita Baranauskiene & Vilija Alekneviciene, 2019. "Comprehensive Measurement of Social Benefits Generated by Public Investment Projects," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 15(4), pages 195-210.
    4. Vahidreza Yousefi & Siamak Haji Yakhchali & Jolanta Tamošaitienė, 2019. "Application of Duration Measure in Quantifying the Sensitivity of Project Returns to Changes in Discount Rates," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption discount rate; Equilibrium discount rate; Experts discount rate; Hyperbolic discounting; Cost-benefit analysis; Gamma discounting; Divergence of opinion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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