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multi-state non-homogeneous semi-markov model of daily activity type, timing and duration sequence


Author Info

  • Tai-Yu Ma

    (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat)

  • Charles Raux

    (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat)

  • Eric Cornelis

    (Groupe de recherche sur les transports - Facultés Universitaires Notre-Dame de la Paix)

  • Iragaël Joly

    (Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Université Pierre Mendès France)


Understanding travelers' daily travel-activity pattern formation is an important issue for activity-based travel demand analysis. The activity pattern formation concerns not only complex interrelations between household members and individual's socio-demographic characteristics but also urban form and transport system settings. To investigate the effects of these attributes and the interrelationship between conducted activities, a multistate semi-Markov model is applied. The underlying assumption of the proposed model states that the state transition probability depends on its adjoining states. Based on the statistical tests of significance, it is affirmed that the duration of activity depends not only on its beginning time-of-day but also on the duration of travel/activity previously conducted. The empirical study based on Belgian Mobility survey is conducted to estimate individual's daily activity durations of different episodes and provides useful insight for the effects of socio-demographic characteristics, urban and transportation system settings on the activity pattern formation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00310900.

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Date of creation: 30 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2009, NO. 2134, pp. 123-134
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00310900

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Related research

Keywords: travel-activity pattern; semi-Markov process; Cox regression model;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


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  1. Bhat, Chandra R., 1996. "A hazard-based duration model of shopping activity with nonparametric baseline specification and nonparametric control for unobserved heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 189-207, June.
  2. Bhat, Chandra R., 1996. "A generalized multiple durations proportional hazard model with an application to activity behavior during the evening work-to-home commute," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 465-480, December.
  3. Ram Pendyala & Chandra Bhat, 2004. "An Exploration of the Relationship between Timing and Duration of Maintenance Activities," Transportation, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 429-456, November.
  4. Lee, Backjin & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2007. "A latent class accelerated hazard model of activity episode durations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 426-447, May.
  5. Lee, Yuhwa & Hickman, Mark & Washington, Simon, 2007. "Household type and structure, time-use pattern, and trip-chaining behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1004-1020, December.
  6. Bhat, Chandra R. & Srinivasan, Sivaramakrishnan & Axhausen, Kay W., 2005. "An analysis of multiple interepisode durations using a unifying multivariate hazard model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 797-823, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Charles Raux & Tai-Yu Ma & Iragaël Joly & Vincent Kaufmann & Eric Cornelis & Nicolas Ovtracht, 2011. "Travel and activity time allocation: An empirical comparison between eight cities in Europe," Post-Print halshs-00578085, HAL.
  2. Tai-Yu Ma & Iragaël Joly & Charles Raux, 2010. "A shared frailty semi-parametric markov renewal model for travel and activity time-use pattern analysis," Working Papers hal-00477695, HAL.


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