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On Abel's Concept of Doubt and Pessimism

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  • Elyès Jouini

    ()
    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - CNRS : UMR7534 - Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX)

  • Clotilde Napp

    (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS : UMR7088 - Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX)

Abstract

In this paper, we characterize subjective probability beliefs leading to a higher equilibrium market price of risk. We establish that Abel's result on the impact of doubt on the risk premium is not correct (see Abel, A., 2002. An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 1075-1092). We introduce, on the set of subjective probability beliefs, market price of risk dominance concepts and we relate them to well known dominance concepts used for comparative statics in portfolio choice analysis. In particular, the necessary first order conditions on subjective probability beliefs in order to increase the market price of risk for all nondecreasing utility functions appear as equivalent to the monotone likelihood ratio property.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00176611.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Publication status: Published, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008, 32, 3682-3694
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00176611

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Keywords: Pessimism; optimism; doubt; stochastic dominance; risk premium; market price of risk; riskiness; portfolio dominance; monotone likelihood ratio;

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  1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  2. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Working Papers 01-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
  4. Harris Schlesinger & Christian Gollier, 2001. "Changes in Risk and Asset Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 443, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Gollier Christian, 1995. "The Comparative Statics of Changes in Risk Revisited," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 522-535, August.
  6. Landsberger, Michael & Meilijson, Isaac, 1990. "Demand for risky financial assets: A portfolio analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 204-213, February.
  7. Pok-sang Lam & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September.
  8. Ormiston Michael B. & Schlee Edward E., 1993. "Comparative Statics under Uncertainty for a Class of Economic Agents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 412-422, December.
  9. Hadar, Josef & Seo, Tae Kun, 1990. "The Effects of Shifts in a Return Distribution on Optimal Portfolios," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 721-36, August.
  10. Giordani, Paolo & Söderlind, Paul, 2003. "Is There Evidence of Pessimism and Doubt in Subjective Distributions? A Comment on Abel," SIFR Research Report Series 19, Institute for Financial Research.
  11. Peter C. Fishburn & R. Burr Porter, 1976. "Optimal Portfolios with One Safe and One Risky Asset: Effects of Changes in Rate of Return and Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1064-1073, June.
  12. Gollier, Christian, 1997. "A Note on Portfolio Dominance," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 147-50, January.
  13. Meyer, Jack & Ormiston, Michael B., 1983. "The comparative statics of cumulative distribution function changes for the class of risk averse agents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 153-169, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Weinbaum, David, 2009. "Investor heterogeneity, asset pricing and volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1379-1397, July.
  2. Diego Nocetti & Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2008. "Properties of the Social Discount Rate in a Benthamite Framework with Heterogeneous Degrees of Impatience," Post-Print halshs-00365980, HAL.
  3. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde & Nocetti, Diego, 2013. "Collective risk aversion," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5673, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2012. "Behavioral biases and the representative agent," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 97-123, July.
  5. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2012. "Behavioral Biases and the Representative Agent," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/2319, Paris Dauphine University.

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