IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04396682.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Future Projections of Global Plastic Pollution: Scenario Analyses and Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Huijie Yan

    (CEARC - Cultures, Environnements, Arctique, Représentations, Climat - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mateo Cordier

    (CEARC - Cultures, Environnements, Arctique, Représentations, Climat - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Takuro Uehara

    (Ritsumeikan University)

Abstract

Plastic pollution has attracted the attention of the media, public, and government worldwide. Analysis of the inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between economic development and plastic pollution is crucial because economic growth is a critical driver of plastic pollution. In this study, for the first time, we (i) used the stochastic impacts of regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model to investigate the EKC relationship; (ii) performed a comprehensive analysis of the effects of sociodemographic factors on plastic pollution; and (iii) used a panel dataset of 128 countries for empirical analyses. The STIRPAT model was used to conduct scenario analyses to explore the impacts of sociodemographic driving forces on future plastic pollution by 2050 on a national (217 countries) and global scale. The empirical results confirmed the EKC relationship and revealed that changes in population structure and urbanization could substantially affect plastic pollution. Global plastic pollution was projected to reach 66.1 MT/y by 2050 under the business-as-usual scenario. Low-income countries and sub-Saharan Africa are projected to become major contributors to plastic pollution, leading to a global trend of increasing plastic pollution. These findings will help policymakers identify targets to effectively reduce future global plastic pollution.

Suggested Citation

  • Huijie Yan & Mateo Cordier & Takuro Uehara, 2024. "Future Projections of Global Plastic Pollution: Scenario Analyses and Policy Implications," Post-Print hal-04396682, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04396682
    DOI: 10.3390/su16020643
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04396682
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04396682/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3390/su16020643?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roca, Jordi & Padilla, Emilio & Farre, Mariona & Galletto, Vittorio, 2001. "Economic growth and atmospheric pollution in Spain: discussing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 85-99, October.
    2. Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
    3. Luiz R. de Mello Jr., 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Selective Survey," Studies in Economics 9701, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    4. Tobias D. Nielsen & Jacob Hasselbalch & Karl Holmberg & Johannes Stripple, 2020. "Politics and the plastic crisis: A review throughout the plastic life cycle," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), January.
    5. Jia, Junsong & Deng, Hongbing & Duan, Jing & Zhao, Jingzhu, 2009. "Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method--A case study in Henan Province, China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2818-2824, September.
    6. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    7. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    8. Wang, Yafei & Liao, Meng & Wang, Yafei & Xu, Lixiao & Malik, Arunima, 2021. "The impact of foreign direct investment on China's carbon emissions through energy intensity and emissions trading system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    9. QIN, Bo & WU, Jianfeng, 2015. "Does urban concentration mitigate CO2 emissions? Evidence from China 1998–2008," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 220-231.
    10. Satomi Kimino & David S. Saal & Nigel Driffield, 2007. "Macro Determinants of FDI Inflows to Japan: An Analysis of Source Country Characteristics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 446-469, March.
    11. Hua, Yue & Xie, Rui & Su, Yaqin, 2018. "Fiscal spending and air pollution in Chinese cities: Identifying composition and technique effects," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 156-169.
    12. Matthew A. Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors On Air Pollution," Labor and Demography 0312005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 May 2004.
    13. Dong, Qichen & Lin, Yongyi & Huang, Jieyu & Chen, Zhongfei, 2020. "Has urbanization accelerated PM2.5 emissions? An empirical analysis with cross-country data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    14. Luiz de Mello, 1997. "Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34.
    15. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2004. "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 431-455, August.
    16. Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Guan, Dabo, 2009. "Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 145-154, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huijie Yan & Mateo Cordier & Takuro Uehara, 2024. "Future Projections of Global Plastic Pollution: Scenario Analyses and Policy Implications," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/371523, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Huijie Yan & Mateo Cordier & Takuro Uehara, 2024. "Future Projections of Global Plastic Pollution: Scenario Analyses and Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Fang, Wen Shwo & Miller, Stephen M. & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2012. "The effect of ESCOs on energy use," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 558-568.
    4. Arzaghi, Mohammad & Squalli, Jay, 2023. "The environmental impact of fossil fuel subsidy policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Nicole Grunewald & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2009. "Driving Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and the Impact from Kyoto Protocol," CESifo Working Paper Series 2758, CESifo.
    6. Wang, Mingwei & Che, Yue & Yang, Kai & Wang, Min & Xiong, Lijun & Huang, Yuchi, 2011. "A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6981-6990.
    7. Bo Li & Xuejing Liu & Zhenhong Li, 2015. "Using the STIRPAT model to explore the factors driving regional CO 2 emissions: a case of Tianjin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1667-1685, April.
    8. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Maruotti, Antonello, 2011. "The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1344-1353, May.
    9. Zhang, Chuanguo & Lin, Yan, 2012. "Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 488-498.
    10. Muhammad Shahbaz & Avik Sinha, 2019. "Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2emissions: a literature survey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 106-168, January.
    11. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Aurelia Bengochea-Morancho & Rafael Morales-Lage, 2007. "The impact of population on CO 2 emissions: evidence from European countries," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 38(4), pages 497-512, December.
    12. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sinha, Avik, 2019. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emission: A survey of empirical literature," MPRA Paper 100257, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2019.
    13. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2013. "The effect of ESCO s on carbon dioxide emissions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(34), pages 4796-4804, December.
    14. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Layton, Allan, 2015. "Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: A decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 25-35.
    15. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Population, Affluence, and Environmental Impact Across Development: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Modeling," MPRA Paper 52088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Emilio Padilla Rosa & Evans Jadotte, 2023. "The determinants of the inequality in CO2 emissions per capita between developing countries and their implications for environmental policy," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 151-169, February.
    17. Olaronke T. ONANUGA, 2017. "Elasticity of CO2 emissions with Respect to Income, Population, and Energy Use: Time Series Evidence from African Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 651-670, December.
    18. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Mrabet, Zouhair, 2017. "The impact of economic development and social-political factors on ecological footprint: A panel data analysis for 15 MENA countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 138-154.
    19. Juan Antonio Duro & Jordi Teixidó-Figueras & Emilio Padilla, 2017. "The Causal Factors of International Inequality in $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions Per Capita: A Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 683-700, August.
    20. Li, Kunming & Fang, Liting & He, Lerong, 2019. "How population and energy price affect China's environmental pollution?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 386-396.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04396682. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.