IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02741407.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk preferences and optimal management of uneven-aged forests in the presence of climate change: a Markov decision process approach

Author

Listed:
  • Stéphane S. Couture

    (MIAT INRA - Unité de Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Marie-Josée Cros

    (MIAT INRA - Unité de Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

  • Régis Sabbadin

    (MIAT INRA - Unité de Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)

Abstract

Climatic changes will affect the occurrence probability of extreme windstorms. Consequently, management of uneven-aged forests can only be optimized correctly if changes in climatic conditions are considered. This article determines the optimal management regime of uneven-aged forests in the presence of climatic changes affecting windstorm occurrence probabilities, and takes into account the risk preferences of the forest owner. This study analyzes optimal harvesting of uneven-aged stands by applying a Markov Decision Processes (MDP) framework and an economic description of uneven-aged forestry. Two management types are considered: the exact uneven-aged forest management model in which the forest owner jointly manages all the different stand plots, and the independent uneven-aged forest management model that assumes that the forest owner separately and independently manages each plot of the forest. The MDP framework is applied to a non-industrial private forest owner located in North-East of France. We show that the forest owner tends to converge toward a forest structure which is very close to a normal forest. We also find that the independent model can be seen as a poor approximation of the exact model because of strong incidence in terms of optimal harvesting policy. We also show that the optimal decisions depend on risk preferences but not on the considered levels of windstorm probability possibly resulting from climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane S. Couture & Marie-Josée Cros & Régis Sabbadin, 2014. "Risk preferences and optimal management of uneven-aged forests in the presence of climate change: a Markov decision process approach," Post-Print hal-02741407, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02741407
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02741407
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02741407/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buongiorno, Joseph & Zhou, Mo, 2011. "Further generalization of Faustmann's formula for stochastic interest rates," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 248-257, August.
    2. Zhou, Mo & Buongiorno, Joseph, 2011. "Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 402-410, June.
    3. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2006. "Does risk aversion accelerate optimal forest rotation under uncertainty?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 171-184, December.
    4. Ching-Rong Lin & Joseph Buongiorno, 1998. "Tree Diversity, Landscape Diversity, and Economics of Maple-Birch Forests: Implications of Markovian Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(10), pages 1351-1366, October.
    5. Stéphane S. Couture & Arnaud A. Reynaud, 2011. "Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value," Post-Print hal-02651317, HAL.
    6. Peter Berck, 1979. "The Economics of Timber: A Renewable Resource in the Long Run," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(2), pages 447-462, Autumn.
    7. Salo, Seppo & Tahvonen, Olli, 2003. "On the economics of forest vintages," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1411-1435, June.
    8. Andersson, Mats & Gong, Peichen, 2010. "Risk preferences, risk perceptions and timber harvest decisions -- An empirical study of nonindustrial private forest owners in northern Sweden," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 330-339, June.
    9. Reed, William J., 1984. "The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-190, June.
    10. Seppo Salo & Olli Tahvonen, 2004. "Renewable Resources with Endogenous Age Classes and Allocation of Land," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 513-530.
    11. Couture, Stéphane & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2002-2011, September.
    12. Tapan Mitra & Henry Y. Wan, 1985. "Some Theoretical Results on the Economics of Forestry," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(2), pages 263-282.
    13. Andersson, Mats, 2012. "Assessing non-industrial private forest owners’ attitudes to risk: Do owner and property characteristics matter?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-13.
    14. Williams, Byron K., 2009. "Markov decision processes in natural resources management: Observability and uncertainty," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(6), pages 830-840.
    15. Olli Tahvonen, 2004. "Optimal Harvesting Of Forest Age Classes: A Survey Of Some Recent Results," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3-4), pages 205-232.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Couture, Stéphane & Cros, Marie-Josée & Sabbadin, Régis, 2016. "Risk aversion and optimal management of an uneven-aged forest under risk of windthrow: A Markov decision process approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 94-114.
    2. Couture, Stéphane & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2002-2011, September.
    3. Dumollard, Gaspard, 2018. "Multiple-stand forest management under fire risk: Analytical characterization of stationary rotation ages and optimal carbon sequestration policy," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 146-154.
    4. Zhou, Mo, 2015. "Adapting sustainable forest management to climate policy uncertainty: A conceptual framework," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 66-74.
    5. Gaspard Dumollard & Stéphane De Cara, 2018. "Land allocation between a multiple-stand forest and agriculture under storm risk and recursive preferences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 256-268, July.
    6. Piazza, Adriana & Roy, Santanu, 2015. "Deforestation and optimal management," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 15-27.
    7. Laukkanen, Matti & Tahvonen, Olli, 2023. "Wood product differentiation in age-structured forestry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Khan, M. Ali, 2016. "On a forest as a commodity and on commodification in the discipline of forestry," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 7-17.
    9. Morag F. Macpherson & Adam Kleczkowski & John R. Healey & Nick Hanley, 2018. "The Effects of Disease on Optimal Forest Rotation: A Generalisable Analytical Framework," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 565-588, July.
    10. Adriana Piazza & Santanu Roy, 2020. "Irreversibility and the economics of forest conservation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(3), pages 667-711, April.
    11. Xabadia, Angels & Goetz, Renan U., 2010. "The optimal selective logging regime and the Faustmann formula," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 63-82, January.
    12. COUTURE Stephane & REYNAUD Arnaud, 2006. "Multi-stand Forest Management Under a Climatic Risk: Do time and Risk Preferences Matter?," LERNA Working Papers 06.17.210, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    13. Kuusela, Olli-Pekka & Lintunen, Jussi, 2020. "Modeling market-level effects of disturbance risks in age structured forests," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    14. Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Nghiem, Nhung, 2016. "Optimal forest rotation for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation by farm income levels," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 185-194.
    15. Roberto Cominetti & Adriana Piazza, 2009. "Asymptotic Convergence of Optimal Policies for Resource Management with Application to Harvesting of Multiple Species Forest," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 576-593, August.
    16. Ali Khan, M. & Piazza, Adriana, 2012. "On the Mitra–Wan forestry model: A unified analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 230-260.
    17. Newman, D.H., 2002. "Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-27.
    18. Mats, Andersson & Gong, Peichen, 6. "Risk Preferences, Risk Perceptions and Timber Harvest Decisions – An Empirical Study of NIPF Owners in Northern Sweden," Scandinavian Forest Economics: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, Scandinavian Society of Forest Economics, issue 42, April.
    19. Fabbri, Giorgio & Faggian, Silvia & Freni, Giuseppe, 2015. "On the Mitra–Wan forest management problem in continuous time," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1001-1040.
    20. Lintunen, Jussi & Uusivuori, Jussi, 2014. "On The Economics of Forest Carbon: Renewable and Carbon Neutral But Not Emission Free," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 165755, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02741407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.