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Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne

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  • Jonathan Marie

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, it aims at proposing a Post-Keynesian interpretation of hyperinflation. The theoretical building includes elements suggested by Post-Keynesians as well as by structuralists. The accent is put on the role played by a foreign currency in domestic comportments during high inflation periods. Besides, a definition of hyperinflation is suggested: hyperinflation could be seen as a substitution by a foreign currency of a domestic currency. This substitution, violent in its final step, is built gradually. Hyperinflation is caused by a violent distributive conflict which generates a strong inflation, by indexation, by an external indebtedness denominated in a foreign currency and by self-fulfilling prophecies. Secondly, this theoretical framework is confronted to economic facts observed in Argentina from the 1970's to the 1989 hyper-inflationist spurt. The historical political economy analysis allows the spotting of the following sequence: the distributive conflict is highly violent, reshaped several times from the 1970's onwards. It provokes the development of institutional arrangements (indexation), while the dollar becomes more and more important within the economy. This phenomenon is encouraged by the implementation of an original exchange rate regime at the end of the 1970's, in a context of liberalization of the economy. The impossibility to stabilize the exchange rate during the 1980's in a context of external indebtedness makes possible the arising of hyperinflation. It is finally activated by speculation on the exchange rate level and a run on the foreign reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Marie, 2014. "Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne," Post-Print hal-01346920, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01346920
    DOI: 10.4000/regulation.10794
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sorbonne-paris-nord.hal.science/hal-01346920
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    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation bulgare de 1997 : transition, fragilité bancaire et change," CEPN Working Papers 2016-13, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    2. Sébastien Charles & Eduardo Figueiredo Bastian & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "Inflation Regimes and Hyperinflation. A Post-Keynesian/Structuralist typology," CEPN Working Papers hal-03363240, HAL.
    3. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2017. "Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 313-335, July.
    4. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "How Israel avoided hyperinflation. The success of its 1985 stabilization plan in the light of post-Keynesian theory," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 528-558, May.
    5. Kulesza, Marta, 2017. "Inflation and hyperinflation in Venezuela (1970s-2016): A post-Keynesian interpretation," IPE Working Papers 93/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hyperinflation; Post-keynesian Theory; Argentina; Capitalisme; institutions; pouvoirs 15 | 1er semestre / Spring 2014;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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