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Labour Force Participation and the Business Cycle: A Comparative Analysis of Europe, Japan and the United States

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Author Info
Julia Darby
Robert A Hart
Michaela Vecchi

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Abstract

Using OECD data from 1970 until 1995, we estimate systems of labour force participation equations, disaggregated by age and sex, for the United States, Japan, France and Sweden. We simulate the path of participation rates following shocks to GDP and also test for asymmetric responses to shocks occurring in upward and downward phases of the cycle. Our methodology is especially pertinent to the issue of hidden unemployment and the "discouraged worker effect". We find that this effect is essentially a female phenomenon with a particular concentration among 45 to 54 year olds.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 9802.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:9802

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Related research
Keywords: Participation rates; business cycle; asymmetric responses; discouraged worker effects;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  3. Hart, Robert A & Malley, Jim, 1996. "Excess Labour and the Business Cycle: A Comparative Study of Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(250), pages 325-42, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    Other versions:
  5. Killingsworth, Mark R. & Heckman, James J., 1987. "Female labor supply: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 103-204 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Michela VECCHI, 1996. "Increasing Returns versus Externalities: Pro-Cyclical Productivity in US and Japan," Working Papers 83, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Economia.
  7. Connelly, Rachel, 1992. "The Effect of Child Care Costs on Married Women's Labor Force Participation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 83-90, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Tetsuji Yamada & Tadashi Yamada & Guorn Liu, 1990. "Determinants of Saving and Labor Force Participation of the Elderly in Japan," NBER Working Papers 3292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Tachibanaki, Toshiaki & Sakurai, Kojiro, 1991. "Labour supply and unemployment in Japan," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1575-1587, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gordon, Robert J, 1982. "Why U.S. Wage and Employment Behaviour Differs from That in Britain and Japan," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 13-44, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlo Altavilla, Antonio Garofalo, Concetto Paolo Vinci, 2005. "Is the Discouraged Worker Effect Time-Varying?," CELPE Discussion Papers 97, CELPE (Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy), University of Salerno, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 7_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008. "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers 8_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
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