Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities
AbstractThis study examines the dynamic relationship between spot and futures prices of agricultural commodities. We first briefly discuss what the non-arbitrage and asset pricing theory has to say about the relationship between spot and futures markets. Next, using recent price data for corn, wheat, and soybeans, we perform Granger causality tests to empirically uncover the direction of information flows between spot and futures prices. Linear as well as nonlinear (nonparametric) causality tests are conducted on both spot and futures returns and their volatility. The results indicate that spot prices are generally discovered in futures markets. In particular, we find that changes in futures prices lead changes in spot prices more often than the reverse. These findings also contribute to the debate on alternative instruments to address excessive volatility in grain markets. Our results support, for example, the viability of implementing a global virtual reserve, recently proposed by von Braun and Torero (2008, 2009), to prevent disproportionate spikes in grain spot prices through signals and, if necessary, market assessment in the exchange of futures.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 988.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
agricultural commodity markets; futures prices; granger causality; spot prices;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2010-07-17 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-LAM-2010-07-17 (Central & South America)
- NEP-MIC-2010-07-17 (Microeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2004.
"A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
04-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
- Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
- Robles, Miguel & Torero, Maximo & von Braun, Joachim, 2009. "When speculation matters:," Issue briefs 57, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Chari, V V & Jagannathan, Ravi & Jones, Larry, 1990. "Price Stability and Futures Trading in Commodities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 527-34, May.
- Ronald I. McKinnon, 1967. "Futures Markets, Buffer Stocks, and Income Stability for Primary Producers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 844.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
- Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
- Kawai, Masahiro, 1983. "Price Volatility of Storable Commodities under Rational Expectations in Spot and Futures Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(2), pages 435-59, June.
- Cooke, Bryce & Robles, Miguel, 2009. "Recent food prices movements: A time series analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 942, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- von Braun, Joachim & Torero, Maximo, 2009. "Implementing physical and virtual food reserves to protect the poor and prevent market failure:," Policy briefs 10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- von Braun, Joachim & Torero, Maximo, 2008. "Physical and virtual global food reserves to protect the poor and prevent market failure:," Policy briefs 4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-87, September.
- Brorsen, B. Wade & Bailey, DeeVon & Richardson, James W., 1984. "Investigation Of Price Discovery And Efficiency For Cash And Futures Cotton Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(01), July.
- Kritika Mathur & Nidhi Kaicker & Raghav Gaiha & Katsushi Imai & Ganesh Thapa, 2013.
"Financialisation of Food Commodity Markets, Price Surge and Volatility: New Evidence,"
The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series
1312, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Kritika Mathur & Nidhi Kaicker & Raghav Gaiha & Katsushi S. Imai & Ganesh Thapa, 2013. "Financialisation of Food Commodity Markets, Price Surge and Volatility: New Evidence," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-22, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Hernandez, Manuel A. & Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2011.
"How far do shocks move across borders?: Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets,"
IFPRI discussion papers
1109, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Manuel A. Hernández & Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2011. "How Far Do Shocks Move Across Borders? Examining Volatility Transmission in Major Agricultural Futures Markets," Working Papers 2011-15, Banco de México.
- Hernandez, Manuel A. & Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2012. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122511, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Hernandez, Manuel A. & Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., . "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 124979, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Manuel Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo Trupkin, 2011. "How far do shocks move across borders?Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1109, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
- Jayati Ghosh & James Heintz & Robert Pollin, 2011. "Speculation on Commodities Futures Markets and Destabilization Of Global Food Prices: Exploring the Connections," Working Papers wp269, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Areal, Francisco J & Balcombe, Kelvin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2013. "Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets," MPRA Paper 48015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Girardi, Daniele, 2012. "Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?," MPRA Paper 40285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sophie van Huellen, 2013. "Price Non-Convergence in Commodities: A Case Study of the Wheat Conundrum," Working Papers 185, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK.
- Pedro Linhares Rossi & Guilherme Santos Mello, 2014. "The Fourth Dimension: Derivatives As A Form Of Capital," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Mihaela NICOLAU & Giulio PALOMBA & Ilaria TRAINI, 2013. "Are Futures Prices Influenced by Spot;Prices or Vice-versa? An Analysis of Crude;Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets," Working Papers 394, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Volatility transmission in agricultural futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 541-546.
- Emiliano Magrini & Ayca Donmez, 2013. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," JRC-IPTS Working Papers JRC84138, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre.
- Girardi, Daniele, 2012. "A brief essay on the financialization of agricultural commodity markets," MPRA Paper 44771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Girardi, Daniele, 2011. "Do financial investors affect commodity prices? The case of Hard Red Winter Wheat," MPRA Paper 35670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jayati Ghosh, 2011. "Implications of regulating commodity derivatives markets in the USA and EU," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(258), pages 287-304.
- Bernhard Troester, 2012. "The determinants of the recent food price surges â€“ A basic supply and demand model," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1206, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
- Lucia BALDI & Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE, 2011.
"Spot and future prices of agricultural commodities: fundamentals and speculation,"
Departmental Working Papers
2011-03, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
- Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2011. "Spot and Futures Prices of Agricultural Commodities: Fundamentals and Speculation," 2011 International European Forum, February 14-18, 2011, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 122002, International European Forum on Innovation and System Dynamics in Food Networks.
- Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2011. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodities: The Shifting Relationship Between Spot and Future Prices," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114237, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Dramane Coulibaly, 2011.
"Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis,"
2011-28, CEPII research center.
- Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Dramane Coulibaly, 2011. "Index trading and agricultural commodity prices: A panel Granger causality analysis," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 51-72.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.