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Financial market implications of the federal debt paydown

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Author Info
Michael J. Fleming

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Abstract

U.S. Treasury securities fill several crucial roles in financial markets: they are a risk-free benchmark, a reference and hedging benchmark, and a reserve asset to the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. Many of the features that make the Treasury market an attractive benchmark and reserve asset are likely to be adversely affected by the paydown of the federal debt, and recent developments suggest that this may be happening already. Market participants are responding by moving away from Treasuries as a reference and hedging benchmark toward agency debt securities, corporate debt securities, and interest rate swaps. The Federal Reserve is taking steps to adjust its portfolio and should be able to do so with minimal implications for monetary policy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 120.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:120

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Related research
Keywords: Treasury bills ; Debts; Public ; Hedging (Finance);

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alan J. Auerbach & William G. Gale, 2000. "Perspectives on the Budget Surplus," NBER Working Papers 7837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul Bennett & Kenneth Garbade & John Kambhu, 1999. "Enhancing the Liquidity of U.S. Treasury Securities in an Era of Surpluses," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-083, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-32. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1999. "Are banks still important for financing large businesses?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frank Keane, 1996. "Repo rate patterns for new Treasury notes," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael J. Fleming, 2000. "The benchmark U.S. Treasury market: recent performance and possible alternatives," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 129-145. [Downloadable!]
  7. Duffie, Darrell, 1996. " Special Repo Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 493-526, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dominique Dupont & Brian Sack, 1999. "The Treasury securities market: overview and recent development," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Dec, pages 785-806. [Downloadable!]
  9. Paul Bennett & Kenneth Barbade & John Kambhu, 2000. "Enhancing the liquidity of U.S. Treasury securities in an era of surpluses," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 89-119. [Downloadable!]
  10. Duffee, Gregory R, 1996. " Idiosyncratic Variation of Treasury Bill Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 527-51, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2001. "Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity: An Empirical Analysis of Yield Spreads and their Systematic Components," IMF Working Papers 01/158, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Goldreich & Bernd Hanke & Purnendu Nath, 2005. "The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kenneth D. Garbade & John E. Kambhu, 2005. "Why is the U.S. Treasury contemplating becoming a lender of last resort for Treasury securities?," Staff Reports 223, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Kumhof & Evan Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt: A Key Role in Financial Intermediation," IMF Working Papers 05/57, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael J. Fleming & Kenneth D. Garbade, 2004. "Repurchase agreements with negative interest rates," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael J. Fleming & Kenneth D. Garbade, 2005. "Explaining settlement fails," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Common determinants of bond and stock market liquidity: the impact of financial crises, monetary policy, and mutual fund flows," Staff Reports 141, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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