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The economic effects of violent conflict: evidence from asset market reactions

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Author Info

  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Eliana La Ferrara

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of conflict onset on asset markets applying the event study methodology. We consider a sample of 112 conflicts during the period 1974-2004 and find that a sizeable fraction of them had a significant impact on stock market indices and on major commodity prices. Furthermore, our results suggest that we are more likely to see investor reactions in response to conflicts that occur in highly polarized settings, possibly because the expected duration and intensity of the conflict is higher.

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File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-066.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2005-066.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-066

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Keywords: Stock exchanges ; Prices;

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References

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  1. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1999. "The Quality of Government," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 222-79, April.
  2. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
  3. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2007. "Diamonds Are Forever, Wars Are Not: Is Conflict Bad for Private Firms?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1978-1993, December.
  4. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409007, EconWPA.
  5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1993. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 4486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2005. "The effects of war risk on US financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1769-1789, July.
  7. Svensson, Jakob, 1998. "Investment, property rights and political instability: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1317-1341, July.
  8. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2009. "Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 225-250, 04.
  9. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2001. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case-Control Study for the Basque Country," NBER Working Papers 8478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4553018, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kallberg, Jarl & Liu, Crocker H. & Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "Updating expectations: An analysis of post-9/11 returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 400-432, November.
  2. Klaus Abbink & Jordi Brandts & Benedikt Herrmann & Henrik Orzen, 2009. "Inter-Group Conflict and Intra-Group Punishment in an Experimental Contest Game," Discussion Papers 2009-03, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
  3. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
  4. Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "The Consequences of Terrorism for Financial Markets: What Do We Know?," Working Paper Series 2006-6, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  5. Marcel Fratzscher & Livio Stracca, 2009. "Does it pay to have the euro? Italy’s politics and financial markets under the lira and the euro," Working Paper Series 1064, European Central Bank.
  6. Gardeazabal, Javier, 2010. "Methods for Measuring Aggregate Costs of Conflict," DFAEII Working Papers 2010-09, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.

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