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The evolution of cash transactions : some implications for monetary policy

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Stacey L. Schreft
Bruce D. Smith

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Abstract

This paper considers the implications for monetary policy of a decreasing demand for outside money. It finds that even perpetual declines in the demand for base money pose no threat to the traditional methods employed for conducting monetary policy. The effects of such reductions in the demand for central bank liabilities, however, do depend on how monetary policy is conducted. Four monetary policy regimes are analyzed. With a policy of nominal-interest-rate targeting, a secular decline in the volume of cash transactions unambiguously leads to accelerating inflation. A policy of maintaining a fixed composition of government liabilities leads to accelerating (decelerating) inflation if agents have sufficiently high (low) levels of risk aversion. Inflation targeting produces falling nominal and real interest rates, while a policy of fixing the rate of money growth can easily lead to indeterminacy and endogenous oscillation in interest rates. It is argued that a policy of fixing the composition of government liabilities has several advantages if it is known that agents are not too risk averse and that the asymptotic demand for base money is small. If this information is not known, then interest-rate or inflation targeting have an advantage because their consequences are not sensitive to such environmental features.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 99-02.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:99-02

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Keywords: Payment systems ; Monetary policy - United States ; Cash flow;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Schreft, Stacey L & Smith, Bruce D, 1998. "The Effects of Open Market Operations in a Model of Intermediation and Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 519-50, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Schreft, Stacey L. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Money, Banking, and Capital Formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 157-182, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bruce Champ & Bruce D. Smith & Stephen D. Williamson, 1996. "Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: Theory and Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 828-64, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Townsend, Robert M, 1987. "Economic Organization with Limited Communication," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 954-71, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 173-219, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ireland, Peter N., 1994. "Economic growth, financial evolution, and the long-run behavior of velocity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 815-848. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gordon H. Sellon, Jr. & Stuart E. Weiner, 1996. "Monetary policy without reserve requirements: analytical issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-24. [Downloadable!]
  8. Schreft, S L, 1992. "Transaction Costs and the Use of Cash and Credit," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 283-96, April.
  9. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Greenwood, Jeremy & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Financial markets in development, and the development of financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 145-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stacey Schreft & Bruce Smith, 2008. "The social value of risk-free government debt," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 131-155, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Sheri M. Markose & Yiing Jia Loke, 2002. "Can cash hold its own? International comparisons: Theory and evidence," Economics Discussion Papers 536, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Andreas Schabert, 2006. "Central Bank Instruments, Fiscal Policy Regimes, and the Requirements for Equilibrium Determinacy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-025/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Stacey L. Schreft & Bruce D. Smith, 2001. "The conduct of monetary policy with a shrinking stock of government debt," Research Working Paper RWP 01-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, 2000. "Global Dynamics In Macroeconomics: A General Equilibrium Example," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 217, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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