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The Economic Effects of a Rapid Increase in the Minimum Wage: Evidence from South Korea Experiments

Author

Listed:
  • Taeyoung Doh
  • Kyoo il Kim
  • Sungil Kim
  • Hwanoong Lee
  • Kyungho Song

Abstract

South Korea raised the nationwide minimum wage substantially in 2018 and 2019, and the minimum wage rose from 53 percent of the median wage to 63 percent. While the minimum wage has been increasing steadily over decades, the rapid pace in 2018–19 was largely unexpected and driven by a sudden shift in the political environment. We study the economic effects of this minimum wage hike on employment, wages, and labor productivity using South Korean manufacturing firm data. To ensure that sector-specific factors do not drive our main results, we supplement our analysis with data sources covering the service sector. We find a significant negative employment effect of the minimum wage hike for 2018–19 compared with its modest increase in 2015–17, as the fraction of firms exposed to the minimum wage shock substantially increased and these firms adjusted to the shock through both intensive margins (layoffs) and extensive margins (plant closings). We also observe that labor productivity and wages increased more for firms with greater exposure to the minimum wage. Our empirical findings are consistent with a simple task-based production model emphasizing the substitution between labor of different skill levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Taeyoung Doh & Kyoo il Kim & Sungil Kim & Hwanoong Lee & Kyungho Song, 2022. "The Economic Effects of a Rapid Increase in the Minimum Wage: Evidence from South Korea Experiments," Research Working Paper RWP 22-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:94988
    DOI: 10.18651/RWP2022-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eckardt, Marcel Steffen, 2022. "Minimum wages in an automating economy," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 130142, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    2. Ellora Derenoncourt & Clemens Noelke & David Weil & Bledi Taska, 2021. "Spillover Effects from Voluntary Employer Minimum Wages," NBER Working Papers 29425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alan Manning, 2021. "The Elusive Employment Effect of the Minimum Wage," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    4. Niklas Engbom & Christian Moser, 2022. "Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3803-3847, December.
    5. Peter Harasztosi & Attila Lindner, 2019. "Who Pays for the Minimum Wage?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2693-2727, August.
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    8. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & David Zentler-Munro, 2022. "Seeing beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 203-247.
    9. Ellora Derenoncourt & Clemens Noelke & David Weil & Bledi Taska, 2021. "Spillover Effects from Voluntary Employer Minimum Wages," Working Papers 2021-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    10. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    11. Christian Dustmann & Attila Lindner & Uta Schönberg & Matthias Umkehrer & Philipp vom Berge, 2022. "Reallocation Effects of the Minimum Wage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 267-328.
    12. Eckardt, Marcel Steffen, 2022. "Minimum wages in an automating economy," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 133357, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
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    Cited by:

    1. Taeyoung Doh & Luca Van der Meer, 2023. "The Employment Effect of an Increase in the National Minimum Wage: Review of International Evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 0(no. 2), pages 1-15, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    wages; employment; labor; substitution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets

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