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Adjusting Chinese bilateral trade data: how big is China's trade surplus

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Author Info
John W. Schindler
Dustin H. Beckett
Abstract

Hong Kong plays a prominent role as a re-exporter of a large percentage of trade bound for or coming from China. Current reporting practices in China and its trading partners do not fully reflect this role and therefore provide a misleading picture of the origin or ultimate destination of Chinese exports and imports. We adjust bilateral trade data for both China and its trading partners to correct for this problem. We also correct for differences due to markups in Hong Kong and different standards for reporting trade (c.i.f. versus f.o.b.). For 2003, we estimate that China's overall trade surplus was between $53 billion and $126 billion, larger than that reported in official Chinese data, but smaller than that reported by China's trading partners. We also provide evidence that, in general, the actual origin of a good that is transshipped through Hong Kong is correctly reported by the importing country, but the final destination of such goods is not correctly reported by the exporting country.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 831.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:831

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Keywords: Balance of trade - China;

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  1. Robert C. Feenstra et al., 1999. "Discrepancies in International Data: An Application to China-Hong Kong Entrepot Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 338-343, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2006. "Evaluating China’s integration in world trade with a gravity model based benchmark," Working Paper Series 693, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," Working Papers 142009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Chad P. Bown & Meredith Crowley & Rachel McCulloch & Daisuke J. Nakima, 2005. "The U.S. trade deficit: made in China?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 2-18. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christopher Edmonds & Sumner J. La Croix & Yao Li, 2006. "The China's Rise as an International Trading Power," Economics Study Area Working Papers 88, East-West Center, Economics Study Area. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lynn E. Browne, 2005. "The New England-China relationship in 2005," New England Public Policy Center Working Paper 05-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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