Adjusting Chinese bilateral trade data: how big is China's trade surplus
AbstractHong Kong plays a prominent role as a re-exporter of a large percentage of trade bound for or coming from China. Current reporting practices in China and its trading partners do not fully reflect this role and therefore provide a misleading picture of the origin or ultimate destination of Chinese exports and imports. We adjust bilateral trade data for both China and its trading partners to correct for this problem. We also correct for differences due to markups in Hong Kong and different standards for reporting trade (c.i.f. versus f.o.b.). For 2003, we estimate that China's overall trade surplus was between $53 billion and $126 billion, larger than that reported in official Chinese data, but smaller than that reported by China's trading partners. We also provide evidence that, in general, the actual origin of a good that is transshipped through Hong Kong is correctly reported by the importing country, but the final destination of such goods is not correctly reported by the exporting country.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 831.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-05-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-INT-2005-05-23 (International Trade)
- NEP-SEA-2005-05-23 (South East Asia)
- NEP-TRA-2005-05-23 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fung, K. C. & Lau, Lawrence J., 2001. "New Estimates of the United States-China BilateralTrade Balances," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 102-130, March.
- Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Discrepancies in International Data: An Application to China-Hong Kong Entrepot Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 338-343, May.
- Wang, Zhi & Gehlhar, Mark & Yao, Shunli, 2010. "A globally consistent framework for reliability-based trade statistics reconciliation in the presence of an entrepôt," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 161-189, March.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009.
"China's Current Account and Exchange Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
14673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," Working Papers 142009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 2587, CESifo Group Munich.
- Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2009.
"Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 85-111, February.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Evaluating China’s integration in world trade with a gravity model based benchmark," Working Paper Series 0693, European Central Bank.
- Chad P. Bown & Meredith Crowley & Rachel McCulloch & Daisuke J. Nakima, 2005. "The U.S. trade deficit: made in China?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 2-18.
- Lynn E. Browne, 2005. "The New England-China relationship in 2005," New England Public Policy Center Working Paper 05-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.