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Estimates of the size and source of price declines due to nearby foreclosures: evidence from San Francisco

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  • Elliot Anenberg
  • Edward Kung
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    Abstract

    Using a novel dataset which merges real estate listings with real estate transactions in San Francisco from 2007-2009, we present new evidence that foreclosures causally depress nearby home prices. We show that this decrease occurs only after the foreclosed home is listed for sale, which suggests that the effect is due to the additional housing supply created by foreclosure rather than from neglect of the foreclosed property. Consistent with a framework where a foreclosed home simply increases supply, we find that new listings of foreclosed homes and non-foreclosed homes each lower sales prices of homes within 0.1 miles of the listing by 1 percent.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2012-84.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-84

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2009. "Forced Sales and House Prices," NBER Working Papers 14866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert Novy-Marx, 2009. "Hot and Cold Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Fran�ois Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    4. Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2009. "The contagion effect of foreclosed properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 164-178, November.
    5. Zhenguo Lin & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2009. "Spillover Effects of Foreclosures on Neighborhood Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 387-407, May.
    6. Springer, Thomas M, 1996. "Single-Family Housing Transactions: Seller Motivations, Price, and Marketing Time," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 237-54, November.
    7. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
    8. Geoffrey Turnbull & Jonathan Dombrow, 2006. "Spatial Competition and Shopping Externalities: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 391-408, June.
    9. Daniel Hartley, 2011. "The effect of foreclosures on nearby housing prices: supply or disamenity?," Working Paper 1011, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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