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Endogenous Sources of Volatility in Housing Markets: The Joint Buyer-Seller Problem

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  • Elliot Anenberg
  • Patrick Bayer

Abstract

This paper presents new empirical evidence that internal movement - selling one home and buying another - by existing homeowners within a metropolitan housing market is especially volatile and the main driver of fluctuations in transaction volume over the housing market cycle. We develop a dynamic search equilibrium model that shows that the strong pro-cyclicality of internal movement is driven by the cost of simultaneously holding two homes, which varies endogenously over the cycle. We estimate the model using data on prices, volume, time-on-market, and internal moves drawn from Los Angeles from 1988-2008 and use the fitted model to show that frictions related to the joint buyer-seller problem: (i) substantially amplify booms and busts in the housing market, (ii) create counter-cyclical build-ups of mismatch of existing owners with their homes, and (iii) generate externalities that induce significant welfare loss and excess price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Elliot Anenberg & Patrick Bayer, 2013. "Endogenous Sources of Volatility in Housing Markets: The Joint Buyer-Seller Problem," NBER Working Papers 18980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18980
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam M Guren & Timothy J McQuade, 2020. "How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 1331-1364.
    2. Essi Eerola & Niku Maattanen, 2018. "Borrowing constraints and housing market liquidity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 184-204, January.
    3. Plamen Nenov & Espen Moen, 2014. "Buying First or Selling First? Buyer-Seller Decisions and Housing Market Volatility," 2014 Meeting Papers 471, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    5. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Tse, Chung-Yi, 2017. "Flipping in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 232-263.
    6. Michele Loberto & Andrea Luciani & Marco Pangallo, 2022. "What Do Online Listings Tell Us about the Housing Market?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(4), pages 1-52, October.
    7. Allen, Jason & Grieder, Timothy & Peterson, Brian & Roberts, Tom, 2020. "The impact of macroprudential housing finance tools in canada," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    8. Espen R Moen & Plamen T Nenov & Florian Sniekers, 2021. "Buying First or Selling First in Housing Markets," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 38-81.
    9. Alessandro Gavazza & Andrea Lanteri, 2021. "Credit Shocks and Equilibrium Dynamics in Consumer Durable Goods Markets [“Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies”]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(6), pages 2935-2969.
    10. Jason Allen & Timothy Grieder & Brian Peterson & Tom Roberts, 2016. "The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10," Staff Working Papers 16-41, Bank of Canada.
    11. Alina Arefeva, 2016. "How Auctions Amplify House-Price Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 714, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Bø, Erlend Eide, 2018. "Housing match quality and demand: What can we learn from comparing buyer characteristics?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 184-199.
    13. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Cooper, Daniel, 2014. "The Ins and Arounds in the U.S. Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 10041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Jinke Li & Geoffrey Meen, 2016. "Agent Based Models, Housing Fluctuations and the Role of Heterogeneous Expectations," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2016-09, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    15. Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2015. "An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics," 2015 Meeting Papers 1108, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2015. "Urban Land Use," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 467-560, Elsevier.
    17. Martijn I. Dröes & Marc K. Francke, 2018. "What Causes the Positive Price-Turnover Correlation in European Housing Markets?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 618-646, November.
    18. Philippe Bracke, 2021. "How Much Do Investors Pay for Houses?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 41-73, March.
    19. Eric Smith, 2020. "High and Low Activity Spells in Housing Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 1-28, April.
    20. Sniekers, F.J.T., 2014. "The order of buying and selling: Multiple equilibria in the housing market," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    21. Moen, Espen R. & Nenov, Plamen T., 2014. "Buying First or Selling First in Housing Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 9946, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Glaeser, Edward L. & Nathanson, Charles G., 2015. "An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics," Working Paper Series rwp15-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    23. Edward L. Glaeser & Charles G. Nathanson, 2015. "An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 21037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Han, Lu & Strange, William C., 2015. "The Microstructure of Housing Markets," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 813-886, Elsevier.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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