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The cyclical behavior of short-term and long-term job flows

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  • Andrew Figura
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    Abstract

    Using a band pass filter, this paper estimates plant-level job flows at different frequencies and examines the characteristics of the high frequency (transitory) and low frequency (permanent) component flows. Because high frequency employment movements, which likely result in changes in the utilization of plant assets, and low frequency movements, which likely coincide with the restructuring of plant assets, result in different costs to the economy, understanding their separate behavior is important. High frequency plant-level employment fluctuations account for the majority of cyclical movements in aggregate manufacturing employment, but the temporal separation between job destruction and job creation is more pronounced for low frequency job flows, suggesting that permanent job flows reflect a more protracted employment adjustment process. To facilitate the evaluation of job flow models, many of which describe either transitory or permanent job flows, time series of job flows at different frequencies are presented in the appendix.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2002-12.

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    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2002-12

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    Related research

    Keywords: Employment (Economic theory) ; Labor market;

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    References

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    1. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
    2. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Aggregate employment fluctuations with microeconomic asymmetries," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1998. "Improper Churn: Social Costs and Macroeconomic Consequences," NBER Working Papers 6717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    5. Starr-McCluer, Martha, 1993. "Cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation : A reexamination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 417-425, June.
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    7. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1998. "Displaced Capital," NBER Working Papers 6775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ramey, Garey & Watson, Joel, 1997. "Contractual Fragility, Job Destruction, and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(3), pages 873-911, August.
    9. Loungani, Prakash & Rogerson, Richard, 1989. "Cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation : Evidence from the PSID," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-273, March.
    10. Michael R. Darby & John C. Haltiwanger & Mark W. Plant, 1985. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    12. Lilien, David M, 1980. "The Cyclical Pattern of Temporary Layoffs in United States Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(1), pages 24-31, February.
    13. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 13-72.
    14. Harold L. Cole & Richard Rogerson, 1996. "Can the Mortonson-Pissarides matching model match the business cycle facts?," Staff Report 224, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1994. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 4768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Martin S. Feldstein, 1975. "The Importance of Temporary Layoffs: An Empirical Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(3), pages 725-745.
    18. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, December.
    19. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2002. "Measuring Organization Capital," NBER Working Papers 8722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Prescott, Edward C & Visscher, Michael, 1980. "Organization Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 446-61, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Erica L. Groshen & Simon Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
    2. Andrew Figura, 2002. "Is reallocation related to the cycle? A look at permanent and temporary job flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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