Cleaning up the errors in the monthly "Employment situation" report: a multivariate state-space approach
AbstractThis paper examines the underlying state of the labor market, assuming data in the monthly "Employment Situation" are contaminated by measurement error and other transient noise. To better filter out unobserved noise, the methodology exploits correlations among labor-market series. Household employment and labor force have cross-correlated sampling errors; establishment employment and hours-worked may, also. The Kalman filtering procedure also exploits fundamental economic relationships among these series. Error cross-correlations and economic relationships shape a multivariate labor-market model where observed variables embody unobserved components: trend, cycle and noise. Maximum-likelihood estimation enables construction of labor series from which noise components have been removed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1998-05.
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
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- Braun, Steven N, 1990. "Estimation of Current-Quarter Gross National Product by Pooling Preliminary Labor-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 293-304, July.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 15-24.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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