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A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags

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  • Michael F. Bryan
  • William T. Gavin

Abstract

An analysis of how the money supply process can affect the cross-covariance structure of inflation and monetary growth, showing that the Federal Reserve's change in emphasis to monetary targeting in late 1979 could have made the apparently long lag from money growth to inflation virtually disappear in the 1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 9122.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:9122

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Keywords: Money supply;

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References

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  1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-40, June.
  2. James Tobin, 1969. "Money and Income: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 283, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. William Poole, 1987. "Monetary Policy Lessons of recent Inflation and Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 2300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  5. Milton Friedman, 1961. "The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 447.
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Cited by:
  1. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2000. "The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 39-61.
  2. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," Discussion Papers 06, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  3. Peter N. Ireland, 2001. "Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 499, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
  5. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1996. "Endogenous money supply and the business cycle," Working Paper 9605, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  6. William T. Gavin, 1996. "The FOMC in 1995: a step closer to inflation targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 29-47.
  7. Dave, Chetan & Dressler, Scott, 2007. "Market structure and business cycles: Do nominal rigidities influence the importance of real shocks?," MPRA Paper 1794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.

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