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Fiscal multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic vs. stochastic duration

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  • Charles T Carlstrom
  • Timothy S Fuerst
  • Matthius Paustian

Abstract

This paper revisits the size of the fiscal multiplier. The experiment is a fiscal expansion under the assumption of a pegged nominal rate of interest. We demonstrate that a quantitatively important issue is the articulation of the exit from the policy experiment. If the monetary-fiscal expansion is stochastic with a mean duration of T periods, the fiscal multiplier can be unboundedly large. However, if the monetary-fiscal expansion is for a fixed T periods, the multiplier is much smaller. Our explanation rests on a Jensen’s inequality type argument: the deterministic multiplier is convex in duration, and the stochastic multiplier is a weighted average of the deterministic multipliers. The quantitative difference in the two multipliers also arises in a model with capital, and in the baseline nonlinear model. However, the differences between the two is less pronounced in the nonlinear models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 1235.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1235

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Keywords: Business cycles;

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  1. Ippei Fujiwara & Kozo Ueda, 2010. "The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 51, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Gernot Müller & Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," IMF Working Papers 09/106, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
  4. Ippei Fujiwara & Tomoyuki Nakajima & Nao Sudo & Yuki Teranishi, 2010. "Global Liquidity Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  5. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Working Papers 2011-005, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  6. Woodford, Michael, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 7704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," NBER Working Papers 15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Benjamin Pugsley, 2006. "The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 151-190, December.
  9. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2006. "The mistake of 1931: A general equilibrium analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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