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Modelling the Load Curve of Aggregate Electricity Consumption Using Principal Components

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Author Info
Matteo Manera (Department of Statistics, University of Milano-Bicocca and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy)
Angelo Marzullo (Enifin, Eni S.p.A., Milano, Italy)

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Abstract

Since oil is a non-renewable resource with a high environmental impact, and its most common use is to produce combustibles for electricity, reliable methods for modelling electricity consumption can contribute to a more rational employment of this hydrocarbon fuel. In this paper we apply the Principal Components (PC) method to modelling the load curves of Italy, France and Greece on hourly data of aggregate electricity consumption. The empirical results obtained with the PC approach are compared with those produced by the Fourier and constrained smoothing spline estimators. The PC method represents a much simpler and attractive alternative to modelling electricity consumption since it is extremely easy to compute, it significantly reduces the number of variables to be considered, and generally increases the accuracy of electricity consumption forecasts. As an additional advantage, the PC method is able to accommodate relevant exogenous variables such as daily temperature and environmental factors, and it is extremely versatile in computing out-of-sample forecasts.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2003.95.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2003.95

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Related research
Keywords: Electricity; Load curves; Principal components; Fourier estimator; Constrained smoothing estimator; Temperature; Non-renewable resources; Hydrocarbon fuels; Environment;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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  1. Cargill, Thomas F & Meyer, Robert A, Jr, 1971. "Estimating the Demand for Electricity by Time of Day," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 233-46, December.
  2. Robert Engle & Clive Granger & Ramu Ramanathan & Farshid Vahid-Araghi & Casey Brace, 1992. "Short-Run Forecasts of Electricity Loads and Peaks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-49, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  3. RODRIGUEZ-POOÊ, JuanÊM., 1992. "Estimating the Time-of-Day Electricity Demand by Using the Constrained Smoothing Spline Estimator," CORE Discussion Papers 1992054, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Juan RodrÎguez-Poo, 2000. "Constrained nonparametric regression analysis of load curves," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 229-246. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert & Ramanathan, Ramu & Andersen, Allan, 1979. "Residential load curves and time-of-day pricing : An econometric analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 13-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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