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Demographic change, immigration, and the labour market: A European perspective

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Juan F. Jimeno

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Abstract

After a long period of high unemployment, the EU is about to face a significant change in the demographic structure of its labour force, due to a reduction in fertility rates in the past, and increasing immigration flows. There is a long standing literature of empirical studies aiming at measuring the effects of cohort sizes and of immigration flows on employment and unemployment rates and on the wage profiles of several population groups. And there are some reasons to think that these effects depend on the institutions determining the functioning of the labour market. This paper argues that population ageing may produce a reduction of employment rates in the EU15 over the next two decades, as the share of the older workers in the labour force increase. Then it discusses the reasons why, despite this direct composition effects, there may be another indirect effects of changing composition of the labour supply on population specific employment and unemployment rates. Finally, it uses cross-country data to find how the interaction between the age composition of the labour force and the share of foreign workers in the labour force, on the one hand, and labour market institutions, on the other hand, contribute to explaining international differences in age and gender- specific employment and unemployment rates.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2004-18.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2004-18

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  1. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S65-97, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Friedberg, Rachel M & Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Impact of Immigrants on Host Country Wages, Employment and Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 23-44, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain The Rising Return To College For Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Johnson, William R, 1980. "Vintage Effects in the Earnings of White American Men," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 399-407, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gomes, Joao & Greenwood, Jeremy & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Equilibrium unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 109-152, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bertola, Giuseppe & Blau, Francine D & Kahn, Lawrence, 2001. "Comparative Analysis of Labour Market Outcomes: Lessons for the US from International Long-Run Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 3023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact Of Young Workers On The Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Thomas Bauer & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  13. Jane Sneddon Little & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "The impact of demographic change on U. S. labor markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 47 - 68. [Downloadable!]
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  14. David Card, 1989. "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 3069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 1997. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets: A Cross-National Analysis," NBER Working Papers 6031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Borjas, George J & Freeman, Richard B & Katz, Lawrence, 1996. "Searching for the Effect of Immigration on the Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 246-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Raquel Carrasco & Juan Ramón García & Ana Carolina Ortega, . "The Effect of Immigration on the Employment Opportunities of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence for Spain," Working Papers 2004-17, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Pedro N. Rodríguez, . "Linkages in international stock markets: Evidence from a classification procedure," Working Papers 2004-23, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Namkee Ahn & Juan Ramón García & José A. Herce, . "Demographic Uncertainty and Health Care Expenditure in Spain," Working Papers 2005-07, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ana Carolina Ortega Masagué, . "La situación laboral de los inmigrantes en España: Un análisis descriptivo," Working Papers 2005-08, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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