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A New Test for Chaotic Dynamics Using Lyapunov Exponents

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Author Info
Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
Julián Andrada-Félix

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Abstract

We propose a new test to detect chaotic dynamics, based on the stability of the largest Lyapunov exponent from different sample sizes. This test is applied to the data used in the single-blind controlled competition tests for nonlinearity and chaos that were generated by Barnett et al. (1997), as well as to several chaotic series. The results suggest that the new test is particularly effective when compared to other stochastic alternatives (both linear and nonlinear). The test size is one for large samples, although for small sample sizes it diminishes below the nominal size for two out of the three chaotic processes considered, what is not a surprise given some well-known properties of such processes.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2003-09.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2003-09

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  1. Barnett, William A. & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1997. "A single-blind controlled competition among tests for nonlinearity and chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 157-192. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1992. "Chaotic behaviour in exchange-rate series : First results for the Peseta--U.S. dollar case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-211, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. repec:att:wimass:199520 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ramazan Gencay & W. Davis Dechert, 1996. "The Identification of Spurious Lyapunov Exponents in Jacobian Algorithms," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 1(3). [Downloadable!]
  7. W. A. Broock & J. A. Scheinkman & W. D. Dechert & B. LeBaron, 1996. "A test for independence based on the correlation dimension," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 197-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bask , Mikael, 1997. "Deterministic Chaos in Exchange Rates?," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 453, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  9. Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Simón Sosvilla Rivero & Oscar Bajo Rubio & Carmen Díaz Roldán, . "Sobre la efectividad de la política regional comunitaria: El caso de Castilla-la Mancha," Working Papers 2003-25, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodriguez & Julián Andrada-Félix, 2005. "Testing chaotic dynamics via Lyapunov exponents," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 911-930. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Juan Prieto & Juan Gabriel Rodríguez & Rafael Salas, . "Polarization, Inequality and Tax Reforms," Working Papers 2003-23, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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