Does the Black-Scholes formula work for electricity markets? A nonparametric approach
AbstractDespite the high volatilities recorded for electricity prices, there seems to be little demand for options on electricity. One reason for the disinterest in electricity options could arise from uncertainty about how to price these options. This study uses recent econometric advances to nonparametrically estimate correct prices for electricity options and compare these to the Black-Scholes prices. The main finding is that although the nonparametric estimates deviate significantly from the Black-Scholes prices, it would be diffcult to find an alternative parametric model that performs better. Thus, from a practical viewpoint, the Black-Scholes prices appear to be the best available.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 101.
Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: 31 Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
More information through EDIRC
Electricity markets; Nonparametric estimation; Option pricing;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-08-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2003-08-17 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-CMP-2003-08-17 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-FIN-2003-08-17 (Finance)
- NEP-RMG-2003-08-17 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gallant, A. Ronald & Hsu, Chien-Te & Tauchen, George, 2000.
"Using Daily Range Data to Calibrate Volatility Diffusions and Extract the Forward Integrated Variance,"
00-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- A. Ronald Gallant & Chien-Te Hsu & George Tauchen, 1999. "Using Daily Range Data To Calibrate Volatility Diffusions And Extract The Forward Integrated Variance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 617-631, November.
- Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
- Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986.
"Applied nonparametric methods,"
Handbook of Econometrics,
in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339
- Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- HÄRDLE, Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied nonparametric methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Discussion Paper 1992-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Sanjiv R. Das, 1998. "Poisson-Guassian Processes and the Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 6631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Federico M. Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003.
"Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 241-283, January.
- Federico M. Bandi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1332, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 53-65, March.
- Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 115-148.
- Bandi, Federico & Moloche, Guillermo, 2008. "On the functional estimation of multivariate diffusion processes," MPRA Paper 43681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995.
"Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
- Twomey, P. & Neuhoff, K., 2005. "Market Power and Technological Bias: The Case of Electricity Generation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0532, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Twomey, Paul & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2010. "Wind power and market power in competitive markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3198-3210, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Andersson).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.