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The Effect of Oil Shocks and Cyclicality in Hiding Indian Twin Deficits

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  • Ashima Goyal
  • Abhishek Kumar

Abstract

The paper estimates the relationship between the current account and fiscal deficit, and the real exchange rate, in a structural vector auto regression, with Indian data for the managed float period 1996 Q2 to 2015 Q4, after controlling for output growth and oil shocks. It also examines the cyclicality of the current account, the size of each shock, and assesses whether aggregate demand, forward-looking smoothing, or supply shocks dominate outcomes. The current account deficit (CAD) is found to be counter cyclical. A fiscal deficit shock raises the CAD, but high impact growth shocks and large variance oil shocks lead to overall divergence of the deficits. There is some support for the aggregate demand channel, but it is moderated by supply shocks and compositional effects. Consumption is sticky rather than forward-looking.

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  • Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2017. "The Effect of Oil Shocks and Cyclicality in Hiding Indian Twin Deficits," Working Papers id:11894, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:11894
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal, 2018. "The Indian fiscal-monetary framework: Dominance or coordination?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2018-010, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Umer Jeelanie Banday & Ranjan Aneja, 2019. "Twin deficit hypothesis and reverse causality: a case study of China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Yusuf D. Bulus & Nnaemeka E. Ohaegbu & Olufunmilayo S. Tajudeen & Chinecherem D. Okoronkwo & Danjuma S. Yusuf, 2023. "Fiscal Deficit Expansion and External Sector Imbalance in Nigeria: Implications for Monetary Policy," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(5), pages 1687-1703, May.
    4. Ashima Goyal, 2018. "Evaluating India’s exchange rate regime under global shocks," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 304-321, September.
    5. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    6. Neeraj Nautiyal & Shweta Belwal & Rakesh Belwal, 2023. "Assessment, Interaction and the Transmission Process of Twin deficit Hypothesis: Fresh Evidence from India," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 11(2), pages 269-286, May.
    7. Goyal, Ashima, 2018. "The Indian Fiscal-Monetary Framework: Dominance or Coordination?," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13.
    8. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twin deficits; real exchange rate; growth; oil shocks; SVAR; cyclicality; output growth; current account deficit (CAD); growth shocks; divergence of the deficits; demand channel; compositional effects; consumption.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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